Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Buzz and Banter


Jason's study outlines those instances where October began with 5 straight up days. In post WW2, there were four instances; 1970, 1983.1989, 1997. The market followed with a decline of around 4% in the 30 days following the occurrence.

How you take this depends on your own time frame. The one we use at FTN Midwest Research is intermediate-term. So I have a precedent that the market could fall by 4% over the next month. Looking at those years of occurrence, what should be the course of action on the drop?

The point is - someone focused on very near-term looking at Jason's awesome work would likely lean short for the next 30 days, whereas someone looking out a bit further would use the weakness as an opportunity given that no event in post WW2 era led to a sustainable long-term major market top.

I want to reinforce that I do not think the market should go straight up, just that when it does correct, as long as the intermediate-term fundamental and technical framework remain intact, a 4-7% decline would likely be viewed by most investors as an opportunity.

Great work Jason.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
I am going to refer to Jason as "statmaster" from now on.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos