The Razor Blazer
By Todd Harrison Oct 09, 2003 11:01 am
Turtles are us!
Now the die is shaken
Now the die must fall
There ain't a winner in this game
Who don't go home with all
The Minx explodes out of the gate and the giddy up crowd is getting loud. They certainly have a valid reasons--the S&P is seemingly basing above 1040, the NDX is flirting with a magical musical tour, the breadth is Listorine fresh and the internets are partying like the artist formerly known as Prince. That begs the obvious question, Garth--is it game on?
I see what you see and making a stand here is a dangerous proposition. The more I think about the Burned Razor thesis, however, the more I'm diggin' it. I can't tell you if it's today's business but there are a couple of potential flies to keep your eyes on. The F-Troop, for one, trades sloppy on the heels of the Wall Street Journal's lead story today. They're flying under the radar a bit due to the green screens but note the collective lethargy.
Also, I can't seem to take my eyes off the SOX as they trade a little funky. There's a lot of flow in the SMH and that may be part of the choppiness. A customer sold 16,000 SMH puts (creating over one million SMH to buy) and then turned around and bought them back. Duke & Duke is pretty psyched but I'm not sure what the customer was thinking. Either way, if (big if) the tech tape is to reverse lower today, I would think it starts with the semis and dribbles into the breadth.
As we've discussed, there's a lot of decent looking charts out there and the momentum is in Hoofy's court. How you approach the Minx is a function of your horizon (and prevailing view). If you're the immediate gratification type, you can play the long side using the recent highs (S&P 1040 and NDX 1406) as a stop out. If, on the other hand, your horizon is a bit longer, you might wanna use price to your advantage and scale into some downside puts. If you're A.D.D like O.P.P, you can prolly do both and set yourself up noice. So you know (and if you care), I'm down with O.P.P as far as today's trading goes.
Finally, and as long as we're laying it out there, I owe Minyan Dan Meehan and his boy Mad Dog some snaps on last night's SOX win. I was giving them a fair amount of grief and his team stepped up and bruised the Moose. I still don't "think" they'll pull it off, but I've been saying all year that if any team has the Yanks number this year, it's Boston. Tonight is a pivotal game, guys--and I may just have to jump on the subway and represent.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in qqq
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