Sweet Home Alabama
Let's Go Yankees!
Capt. Ramsey: They gave me my command, a checklist, a target and a button to push. All I had to know was how to push it, and they'd tell me when. They seem to want you to know why.
Lt. Cmdr. Hunter: I would hope they'd want us all to know why, sir.
The afternoon glide has started to slide as traders ready for the earning's ride. It's been a tug-o-war all day (it still is) but during the lunch crunch, our trading tells started to submarine. Now, as we giggle lower, traders are actively wondering if this is a healthy (and necessary) pause (before reporting season) or something we need to pay a bit more attention to.
As we've been discussing, these are important levels for a few reasons. S&P 1040 (NDX 1400ish) represent previous highs from the trading tries. If we rise to periscope depth and pierce these zones, the technical seaman will declare a fresh breakout. If, on the other hand, we fail to overcome those humps, it creates a potential double top in the S&P and dandruff in the Nazz (negative).
I introduced a fresh thesis today--the first in quite a long time--and I'm still wrapping my paws around the particulars. In a nutshell, it calls for the Minx to trend lower into the late November, snap back (hard) into January and then suffer some serious meltage in the early part of 2004. As Professor Succo pointed out in his last piece, gaming the market is often a lesson in frustration. However, this scenario emerged in my mind's eye and I wanted to share it with ye faithful Minyans.
Where (and if) this comes to fruition remains to be seen. Furthermore, I'm unsure if we need to take out the recent highs in order to suck in the last bear standing. More likely than not, that script is still being written and will debut on your trading screens as a function of the coming earnings. Again, the reports will likely be pretty good but the possibility exists that expectations have outpaced reality (ya think?). That potential must be weighed against the fact that a lot of individual charts are shaping up nicely (especially if we can punch through sea level).
I'm pretty certain that there will be a pretty hard gut check for the bulls (at a point) before year end and that thought segues nicely into the Burned Razor thesis. How (and if) you approach the tape is very subjective as each of you has a unique risk profile and time horizon. The common thread, however, is that discipline must always trump conviction.
That's about it from my perch as we ready for DEFCON 3. Congrats to U.K Minyan Hugh Milner who correctly identified Orange Fanta as the world's third best selling soft drink. He wins his choice of a snazzy Minyanville tee (C.O.D?) that he can sport at his favorite pub. For the rest of you, good luck into the close, have a fantastic night and enjoy the games. I would offer hearty support for my beloved Yankees but, as my sporting mojo hasn't worked for the Raiders this year, I'll keep my rooting toots to myself.
Fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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