A Cub's Room
I personally think that it's all VERY exciting!
Good morning and welcome back to the fall classic. As in any game, one swing of the bat can shift the claim of fame from hero to blame. That's been in the bear's playbook all year but their vaunted line-up has been shut down by Hoofy's heat. As we dig in for the late innings of 2003, the fans are on their feet chanting one collective question: Can the Cubbies come back and make it interesting?
We know the elements that are affecting the price action of the tape. The technical metric is in full swing as we tickle the previous tops and Boo is holding on to the fading (yet still viable) notion of a failure there. The brazen bulls, meanwhile, are taking a big lead off third base and seem intent on stealing some more performance. On the psychology front, the crowd remains giddy but, after sitting in the dweller for three years, it's hard to blame them for wanting to run up the score. Fundies? They'll likely be pretty good (they better be!) but it's hard to tell how much is baked into current levels. Finally, the field is fairly fertile thanks to Elmer, the head groundskeeper who has kept the grass moist and the field slick.
I've been cautiously pessimistic regarding the potential fly balls in the ointment. The dollar, if it continues to hit the skids, will ripple through the financial system like a modern day knuckle ball. The internal balance, as measured by the lopsided bell curve, seems to be running into an ivy brick wall. The crowded bleachers, full of fun loving fans with beer goggles, will clearly present a fire hazard when the game ends. It all adds up to a major upset but, jeez, with so many fans cheering the action, when will the game get called?
That's the question that I've been pitching to myself lately as we edge into the home stretch. I'm aware that the vaunted seasonal factors (which haven't mattered yet) are still in motion and my right elbow will remain up whenever I step into the batter's box. Still, this tape demands respect and, as discussed, a push through these levels could tack on some quick gains (S&P 1060ish). Further, there is the potential that the Bear Cubs won't take their bows until the December/January timeframe.
The Minx is dynamic and if the rest of the year was clear cut, there would be no reason to play the game. The risks, as stated above, could kick in at any time (as could the tinderbox that is the Middle East). With that said, there have been some serious agendas in play this year (the administration, central banks, portfolio managers) and they won't want to pull their starters until the outcome is certain. As such, they'll try to bring in their closers and lock in what is, by all measures, a pretty snazzy season.
In Minyanville news, I want to make an exciting announcement regarding the upcoming Critters Choice Awards. Our mandate is to honor the best in creative education and, with so many potential honorees, the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education (in association with Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, Inc.) is going to take more time to consider all the worthy candidates. As our event looks toward the Spring of 2004, the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education will continue to move forward in its mission throughout the holiday season by granting funds to support educational programs such as, the East Harlem Tutorial Program, the Hollywood Education and Literacy Project (H.E.L.P.), the MENTOR/Los Angeles Mentoring Partnership, and Little Kids Rock. We are sure that you will understand our decision to make this event the very best it can be and we look forward to what the new year will bring. Please visit our site for continued updates and, as always, thank you ever so much for your continued support.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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