Holy cow, this market has more swings than a Hedonism vacation! I mean, honesty, wasn't today a microcosm for the bigger picture? Sell hope, buy despair, bipolar indices, mixed signals, mass confusion, freaky critters, hair follicles...the list goes on and on. Martin, price check on some Calgon! Chop chop!
Nuttiness and imagery aside, I'll tell you what I just told my partners: Enjoy the volatility. Relish the volatility...there very well might come a time when the traders of the World are pining for the days of 100 point swings. Do I really believe we'll eventually end up in Lucentland? Well, I've felt for a long time that when the grizzly is done chewing us up, we'll find a level and just sit there. Do I think that we get there in a straight line? Heck no! That would be too easy. Bear markets are littered with false hope and empty promises, and I'm fairly certain there will be bullish phases----maybe even "up" years---scattered throughout the multiyear bear.
That said, as a trader, I can wipe my nose with that big picture thought. The ultimate destination isn't my concern---the path that we take to get there is. In the days, months and years ahead, there will be times to be bullish and times to be bearish. That's not schizophrenia (don't say that to us), that's trading. In my world, playing one side of the tape would be the same thing as boxing with one hand.
I continue to sense that a stiff rally in nestled somewhere between now and yearend, but I am not "convinced" it launches from these levels. Doesn't mean it can't happen, mind you, but effective trading is about identifying an edge and maintaining discipline. And again, at the risk of you coming through my computer and punching me in the ear, this space is not an advice column---it's an educational platform intended to add value to YOUR process. Take away what you will, but please don't trade solely on what you read. My risk profile is surely different than yours.
Powering down the eight screens and luggin' the critters over to the gym. There are many ways to deal with the stress, but a healthy workout tops the list. Besides, if I keep eating these Brent & Sam's cookies, I could very well explode. Discipline? Maybe in trading...certainly not with chocolate! Heartfelt prayers to JS and his beautiful family...we're rooting for ya.
Have a peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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