Car for sale!
Well, she's walking through the clouds
With a circus mind that's running wild
Butterflies and zebras and moonbeams are a fairytale
That's all she ever thinks about, riding with the wind
Good morning and welcome back to the upside jack. We arrive in the 'Ville with the bears standing still after being force fed another tough pill. The Minx was asleep for most of the Hump before late day programs triggered the jump. "The charts, they don't lie," said the bulls on a high as they chewed through a chuck of the upside supply, "the bears are hell bent on a meaty decline but they're missing the boat as I'm jumpin' on mine!" Can they carry on with their vision forgone or will Boo usher in a fresh crimson dawn? We'll know soon enough so please get on your horse as we navigate through this most minxy course!
I had an opportunity to dine with Professor Schaeffer last night as we compared notes on our forward vision. While I've read his work for years, this was the first time we schnitzeled and it was long overdue. We share similar thoughts regarding the secular roadmap and both believe that--while a retracement is certainly plausible--the bigger picture has plenty of room to manifest. Indeed, long-time Minyans are familiar with my belief that, in terms of ownership, energy will ultimately be what tech once was.
This column isn't going to focus on that trend--we all see where we've come from and you know where I believe it's going. Rather, I will stress that there are opportunities in every time frame if you know where to look. Most folks are conditioned to stare at the same stocks day after day, waiting for the days of yesteryear to return their portfolios to glory. Many haven't stopped to think that the basis of their investments is in a stealth bear market and a dollar put under the mattress in early 2002 is only worth 73 cents today. If we've learned anything during the bubble and beyond, it's that questions typically aren't asked until after the fact and when it's too late.
If you believe in the cyclical nature of the markets---you remember, that boom/bust thing--ask yourself what the opposite of a euphoria is. It's not a quick fix--however painful it was--and it's not something that is necessarily today's business. The good news--and yes, there is good news--is that we're not there yet and pockets of profit are nestled in our midst. If apathy is the opposite of love, the true bottom would be devoid of opportunities altogether. That hasn't happened--as evidenced by the outsized sector and asset class rotations--and the onus is on us to make hay while that sun shines.
Earning seasons begins today with most folks looking for further upside gains. It's hard to argue with the path of least resistance as the S&P chews through resistance after resistance. As long as Hoofy can use each stair-step as support and the breadth remains firm, portfolio managers will chase returns and the "long squeeze" will suck in the higher buyers. It's the nature of the beast and, after a year devoid of movement in the major averages, the natives are getting restless. It's entirely alright to play the game--that's what we do--but with so many players on the field, we should be conscious of potential blind spots.
We power up this minxy pup to find a pink (slightly red) Japan, flattish bourses, mixed metals and a marginally lower greenback. S&P 1140 was the most recent resistance and now serves as initial support. The retail group is a focus (same store sales are hittin' the tape as we speak) and we'll add that tell to our usual suspects. And finally, lest we forget, crude continues to test the will--and the pockets--of investors as it powers towards the magical $53 level. That's nuttier than Austin Powers' coffee!
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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