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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts


Can this "bungee" continue?

  • Alright Minyans--you've been waiting patiently and all good things come to those who wait! We are officially opening the gates to the first annual MIM-CCA on December 1st, 2006 in NYC. The afternoon program, from 12-5 pm, will focus on financial themes for 2007, featuring the insights and foresight of Steve Galbraith, Jeffrey Saut, Stephanie Pomboy, John Succo, Steve Shobin, Bennet Sedacca, Greg Weldon, Scott Reamer, Phil Erlanger, Todd Harrison, Jeff Bernstein and Television's JeffMacke®. Uber-Minyan Michael Santoli will once again moderate the event.

    In the evening, we will be honoring Trent Tucker, formerly of the NY Knicks, with the first annual "Ruby" award for outstanding achievement in creative education. Thus far, we've received RSVP's from many of
    Trent 's former teammates, including Patrick Ewing, Charles Oakley and John Starks, as well as from a few NY football Giants including Howard Cross. Space is limited so if you would like more information on how to lock your spot--or, if you or your firm has an interest in sponsoring this event--please let us know. This is 100% for the kids and it's the right way to ring in the New Year.

  • The WSJ reported this morning that Google is in talks to buy YouTube for up to $1.6 billion. That's alotta money!

  • I was just pulling up some Bloomie charts (in front of a Monday TV 'view) and noticed that the DXY (dollar index) is pressing against the downtrend line from 2002.

  • Why could the dollar trade higher? Perhaps greenbacks will be in demand as folks scramble to pay back debt.

  • What could this mean in the context of our "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" theory? Simple--lower asset classes.

  • We've seen that in commodity land. Equities, thus far, have remained in a world unto themselves.

  • Can this "bungee" continue (commodities vs. equities)? I don't think so but--thus far--it has.

  • Or, in the case of General Motors, the SUV has weighed on the Spyders today.

  • The headline Payroll number was, once again, MUCH weaker than expected at 51k, versus expectations for 125k. Take away the 28k jobs that the BLS imputes were created by small business in the month (aka birth/death adjustment) and yer looking at 23k this month. Eek! Even the 'good news' doesn't look so good. The drop in the Unemployment Rate to 4.6%... owed much more to a dramatic decline in the labor force of -430k (bad news) than the creation of new jobs (271k)." (An excerpt of an excellent vibe from) Miss Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens on today's Buzz.

  • "I'm selling the balance of my firm's front end munis here...For two reasons. Relatively speaking, they have absolutely no value in my opinion. Second, I need cash to extend into longer treasuries soon as mentioned yesterday. As for adding to 10's as noted, I am holding off and will let the market settle in. There is no rush unless we break above 109-20 (now around 108-04) in 10 year futes." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Uber-Minyan Steve Shobin just popped in for a visit in the 'Ville and Pepe was fortunate enough to sit down with him and find out five things he says we should know about the market:

    1) In the very short-term this market is moderately vulnerable because the VIX did not make a new low when the S&P made a new high. This divergence can precede small, medium-term corrections.

    2) We may be near a short term peak because rallies tend to end with bangs, not whimpers. The coverage of the new high in the Dow was typical of this kind of bang.

    3) I doubt very much if the market will be overly vulnerable unless high-yield/junk bonds fall sharply in price.

    4) The technical sentiment numbers that I use reflect enough skepticism to suggest that the recent peak will not be a major one. Overall, I look for a choppy/corrective market into the election, then resumption of the bull market.*

    5) Don't listen to anyone who says you should deny your emotions. We're human. Emotions are a part of being human. But, if we can better understand our emotions we can better prepare ourselves for dealing with their consequences.

    *"My opinion is subject to change at a moment's notice!"


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