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No Dancing in September

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This September ranks above average, but not overwhelmingly so.

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September can be the cruelest month of all. Septembers have lost ground an average -1.06% on the Dow since 1950, and an average -1.24% since 1896.

In the 55 years since 1950, the Dow Industrials have advanced in only 19 Septembers, leaving 36 years as downers. Here they are ranked in order of change:

Of the 19 Septembers with gains, 19 (or 26%) were down in the following fourth quarter. All the Q4s for those 19 up-Septembers averaged a gain of 3.59%, and just 2.63% on a median basis. For those 36 down Septembers since 1950, only 7 of the 36 (or 19%) were followed by down Q4s. All the Q4s for those 36 down Septembers averaged a gain of 4.27%, and 5.07% on a median basis.

This September (2005) has come in with a gain of 0.83% on the Dow Industrials. In the spectrum of past Septembers, this ranks as above average, but not overwhelmingly so. With this event there are now 20 Septembers since 1950 that have been gainers, but this September only ranks 17th in that list:

Our conclusion is that up Septembers are no guarantee of a better than average Q4.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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