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Random Thoughts

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Sometimes you're gonna be the windshield, other times you're gonna be the bug.

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  • Note the grabby greenback as it gains 35 bips. While that used to be a granular "tell"--not so much of late--I still believe it's a big picture conundrum. Shirley you can't be serious? I am, and so are alotta folks who are a lot smarter than me.

  • I had a long talk with an old friend last night and we spoke about the differences in a post 9/11 world. I'm a different man, I said to her--darker, in some ways, wiser in others and more mindful in most.

  • Sometimes you're gonna be the windshield, other times you're gonna be the bug. I've been the bug this week as my longs act drekky and my shorts have traction. I won't sugar coat my feel (or lack thereof) but I will take a moment to point to discipline. Defined risk (via options), trading "in between" (making sales last week into the jig) and "trading around" (when positions are moving against you) are the hallmarks of longevity.

  • The BKX is knock, knock, knocking at all-time highs.

  • "Maybe NOW we can put inflation fears to bed. The drop in the Non-Mfg ISM price component of 15.7 points (72.4 vs. 56.7) is the largest on record. The largest previous decline was -6.8 points in October of 2001…e.g., right after 9/11. Deflation here we come." Miss Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens on today's Buzz.

  • Oh, Domino! Not to pile on, but please keep these hedge fund blows on the front burner. We've long discussed the interwoven financial fabric and the leverage in the system--their problems can become our problems with two shakes of a lamb's shank.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag from the Buzz
    Professor Jason Goepfert
    9:44 EST

    "Jason, you ever seen a put/call ratio as high as yesterday on a day a major index hits even a new yearly high? Incredible disbelief in this rally!" Minyan Jon.

    Jon, that would be unusual, but I think it's important to look at one factor. Halliburton (HAL) broke to a new yearly low yesterday on huge volume - not just in the stock, but also in the options.

    I show that if you back just HAL's volume out of the equity-only put/call ratio, it would have gone from 0.98 to 0.66. But for one stock, hardly a show of excessive pessimism...

  • Are we seeing a commodity Capitulation? Maybe not from a cycle standpoint but, taking a snapshot of the CRB, they sure feel a bit washed out. (Or maybe that's just me).

  • Hey, pick your head up--it's not over. It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor and it's not over now!

  • Circle December 1st, 2006 for a NYC Festivus. Trust me on this--we're ready to exhale on this puppy (nice work V), we're just putting that extra special Minyanville touch on it before we do.

  • "A couple of hundred years ago, Benjamin Franklin shared with the world the secret of his success. Never leave that till tomorrow, which you can do today. This is the man who discovered electricity. You'd think more people would listen to what he had to say. I don't know why we put things off, but if I had to guess, I'd have to say it has a lot to do with fear. Fear of failure, fear of rejection, sometimes the fear is just of making a decision, because what if you're wrong? What if you make a mistake you can't undo? Still, sometimes we have to make our own mistakes, learn our own lessons, sweep today's possibility under tomorrow's rug until we can't anymore. Until we finally understand for ourselves what Benjamin Franklin really meant. That knowing is better than wondering, that waking is better than sleeping, and even the biggest failure, even the worst mistake, beats the hell out of never trying." Minyan CC

  • We touched on the probability that the commodity complex would shoulder a probe and, fists alive, it's doing just that. Please note gold (-$14) and crude (-1%), which are lending to some serious supply in the metal equities (XAU -2.5% to a new '06 low) and the drillers (-2%). Deflation indeed. If there is a bungee that interconnects asset classes, it's gonna be fraying by now.

  • I was gonna make a snarky comment (Weave? She can't even knit!) but then I thought of Joel and DWI didn't seem like a source of fun.


R.P.

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