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Random Thoughts


  • That t-shirt's gonna cost you...

  • Underneath the hood, more net new sell signals than buy signals overall, especially in the SPX and NYSE. The Nasdaq Composite continues its relative outperformance.

    I continue to believe tech will be an outperformer going forward, but am simply not confident that outperformance will be positive on an absolute basis. You can outperform something by simply being down less. -- Pepe Depew on today's buzz

  • China begins to rebound

  • "Reliant Energy Inc. said it is raising its electricity prices for Houston-area customers by 14% as soon as possible and could implement an additional increase of about 10% in January, making its prices among the highest in the nation. The Reliant move comes as electricity prices in many markets around the country are rising because of the surging price of natural gas . . . In a recent interview, Reliant Chief Executive Joel Staff said he feared the impact of high electricity prices on consumers but felt compelled to seek the increase, the Houston supplier's first in 2005." - Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2005

  • Jakarta markets press on

  • 40 years later, Turkey wants to play

  • "To get better you have to get angry," Albert Pujols will later say, "You have to take this seriously. I've always had that anger as a player. I always say, 'Why do you want to change what's working for you?' I don't want to change the way I am."

  • Polo Ralph Lifshitz?

  • No more Mr. Nice Ichan....

  • One reason I don't think we have seen the highs in gasoline, which may be a key tell for this market.

    "The ratio of the price of gasoline to crude has fluctuated within a 25% band for the last 10 years. Surprisingly, by this measure, gasoline is currently cheap relative to the price of crude. The ratio of crude oil inventories relative to gasoline inventories has been an excellent predictor of the trend in relative prices of these two commodities. This ratio implies substantial upside for gasoline prices relative to crude oil." - BCA Research

  • This car might have a chance at winning...

  • PortalPlayer (PLAY) up to 31 from Sept. end of 27.43 - Co. gets 90% of revs from Apple (AAPL). Jefferies believes it has secured design win for video iPod.

  • Sun Microsystems (SUNW) continues surge on Google (GOOG) partnership news, up +2%. Microsoft (MSFT) down 2%.

  • Notice some of these telecom stocks have selectively been edging higher - names like LU, Q, MOT, AT, TMX, and T are pacing the Amex North American Telecom Index (XTC) to a 52 week high today.

  • Also, the pullback in crude has the airlines (XAL) up nearly 4% to test 44 resistance. Keep in mind this group got smacked for a loss of 28% off the July high.

  • Vibes from Lehman's Jeff DeGraaf :

    10-yr yields are on the verge of breaking out through the critical 4.44% level. Simultaneously, the dollar is close to completing a head and shoulder bottom formation in trade-weighted terms. Long gold, short euro and yen, and short bonds are our current positions.....though admittedly the combination appears a bit unorthodox.

    Japan's Nikkei made another new high this morning, but interestingly the banking index failed to keep-up with the broader market, and fell by 1.5%. That may be something to watch as banks have been a key component of market leadership, but it is only one-data point in an overwhelming strong series of other data points.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    Looks like Phelps Dodge (PD) is up more than 5% today after hedge fund Atticus Capital (PD's second largest shareholder)suggested management take shareholder friendly actions and possibly use some of its $2.5 billion in cash on the balance sheet to buy back some of its stock. -- Minyan JB

  • I'm sure Minyan JB is keeping a close eye on his St. Louis Cardinals, who have jumped ahead 8-0 on the San Diego Fathers as the MLB playoffs have officially begun.

  • Take a look at this image of a weekly gold chart (with 40 week moving average and Bollinger bands) courtesy of the good folks at

  • Have a great evening!
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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