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Random Thoughts


Playin...playin' in the band. Day Break, day break on the land...


  • A picture is worth a trillion words.

  • Semiconductor analysts are trading scared.

  • The other side of a bubble is....

  • "Given the abysmal 12-month performance of notable trend followers published this weekend in Barrons, it's unlikely that this market will yield returns easily. Look for additional follow through from the 1130 breakout, but it too is an obvious breakout level that may prove too simple for this complex market. The best strategy is to grind out returns where others fail to focus, or are locked into directional thinking." --Lehman's aptly named technical analyst Jeff DeGraaf.

  • We asked the question during Friday's Buzz if the metals were setting themselves up for a bummer today (on the heels of the G7). Sure 'nuff, gold is off almost $6 while silver burps 2.5%. The dollar, for its part, continues to grind higher (+1%).

  • Critter road trip?

  • Citigroup (C:NYSE) and Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) are two flies in today's big cap ointment.

  • Sante Fation.

  • The action in the cyclicals, trannies and small caps continue to embolden Hoofy.

  • Most of my option positions are "out months." The tick top and drip drop is too "gun to head" unless it's a pure punt.

  • During last year's ALCS, I opined that the 2004 could be the year of the Red Sox. And while it pains me to write that, I wanted to "put it out there" with hopes that I'm dead wrong.

  • XBD 130 remains an uber-important line in the sand.

  • If you're an active Minyan and you're not on the Buzz..... dude.... please get with the program!

  • "The indices are off to the best quarterly start since Q4 2003. For today's trade, I ran several analogs based on Friday's action and then stipulated a higher open today. The bias is for a higher close but this morning's gap open remains suspect. The results suggest at least a 75% probability of "filling the gap" and an equally high probability of closing positive. Remember that last quarter's high in the SP futes was 1140.40. Past performance does not indicate future results."--Jason Roney on today's Buzz.

  • T-minus sixteen days. Time for a second wind!

  • The election has brought out the bias in the various mainstream media channels.

  • This is an interesting exchange between all-star guitar signee Bill Gross and Morgan uber-strategist Stephen Roach.

  • The Texans? THE TEXANS?!?

  • I have always used technical analysis as an input rather than an absolute guide. It offers a fantastic framework with which to operate but they're but one of my four primary metrics (fundies, psychology, structural).

  • How 'bout that horse?

  • Our newest Minyanville scribe, Bernie Schaeffer, will be joining Succo and I for our weekly mind-meld on Wednesday.

  • Rosalita, jump a little lighter...

  • Thanks kindly to the Minyanhood for their good vibes on the critter's second birthday. We've grown together and I look forward to many more years and a lot more smiles.

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