Buzz Bits: Dow Dips Into the Red, Nasdaq Gains
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Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the Buzz and Banter.
Earnings Report - MV News
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reports 3Q EPS of $0.36 vs. $0.27 cons on revs of $211.3 mln vs. $210.5 mln cons.
- McKesson (MCK) reports 2Q EPS of $0.66 vs. $0.59 cons on revs of $22.39 bln vs. $23.14 bln cons.
- Baidu.com (BIDU) reports 3Q EPS of $0.37 vs. $0.28 cons on revs of $30.3 mln vs. $30.2 mln cons.
It's business, not personal - Jeff Macke - 2:25 PM
Now that I've gotten my fill for the day, and because it's a wee bit slow out there, I can share that one of my dark-side retail options plays is in the Gap (GPS).
On the sales side, the co reported (7%) and (3%) for August and September, respectively. According to Street Account, analysts are expecting (2.5%) for October. Gap was bullish on margins last month; making a bullish pre-announcement possible. And if they announce the departure of the CEO (the only GPS exec who never seems to leave) the stock will move higher on me.
Then again, GPS is up 10% in October and over 20% in the last three months. I don't think another month of negative sales and a weak outlook will be well received on the Street. As I said last night, I think Gap is a retail have-not. From my non-advising-just-sharing perspective, the stock has downside potential from here.
In other news, I'll be leaving early to share my Wrath costume with the neighbors tonight. Time permitting, I may even do some trick or treating with the kids...
position in GPS
Buzz in the Afternoon - Todd Harrison - 2:03 PM
- Today's action is consistent with the "bend not break" mentality we've been hypnotized to accept. I mean, seriously, does anyone have a spare pocket watch?
- As go the financials, so goes the tape. Until this complex weens itself off the performance enhancing drugs, Hoofy will continue to feel emboldened.
- We've been incessently eyeing the metal equities and, sure 'nuff, they're today's top sector by far. (or, as they say in Bahston, by "fa").
- How many times will investors get paid for buying Weatherford under $40? I've done it a bunch but not nearly enough.
- Remember the Titans? No? How bout the dollar? After prodding the 200-day and the multiyear trendline, it's seemingly flopped like a frazzled Chad in Back to School.
- Hey, not everyone can pull off a picture perfect triple lindy!
Position in financials, metals
The ISM, Gold, and the Dollar - Lance Lewis - 10:31 AM
Chicago PMI came in at 53.5 vs. 58 consensus (a miss of 4.5 pts)...
The consensus is expecting 53 for the ISM tomorrow. Whenever two back-to-back negative Philly Fed Index readings have been combined with two back-to-back negative readings in the LEI's 6-month change (both of which we got back on 10/19/06), the ISM has always fallen below 50.
If the consensus misses the ISM by the same 4.5 pts that it missed the Chicago number today, it will come in at 48.5, and the Fed has never raised interest rates when the ISM is below 50, which has obvious implications for gold and the dollar. While it's been my opinion since August (when the Fed "paused" for the first time) that they were "done," the market hasn't been quite as certain about future Fed moves. Thus, an ISM that is sub-50 could potentially be the catalyst that finally breaks gold out from the technical "mud" that it has been attempting to crawl through of late. See the chart here.
Note that gold and the foreign currencies are already firming in the wake of today's Chicago number...
Position in gold shares
10 year note update for traders... - Bennet Sedacca - 8:59 AM
As you may know, my firm has a long-term position in 10's, banking on both a slowing economy and slowing inflation. Since we use overall inflation in our shop, we see a definite downtrend in inflation and the economy of late. This has reinforced my firm's commitment to positions already established in 10's and long-term discounted, callable agencies.
But what if we are a trader? I get this question all the time as I gather many a Minyan is more trading oriented than I am. So I shall try to put the trading hat on (I do know HOW to trade folks as I did it for many years) even though my firm isn't a trading shop.
I think the range in 10's is rather defined. On the daily charts, the 106-16 area serves as a 'triple bottom - see the chart here. Then again, 107-16 was previous resistance and is now support. Resistance lies in the 108-16 range with a MULTI-YEAR trend line in the 109-109 1/2 range. So here is the deal. VERY short term traders would use 107-16 as a stop and longer-term guys, like me, will keep an eye on 106-16 on a closing basis. A close above 108 1/2 and then 109 1/2 will get the momentum boys in a lather, I imagine. I happen to think that will eventually happen but am open-minded about it.
position in Treasuries and agencies
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:12 AM
Ford (F) Plans Production Cuts of 12% - Ford's projected first-half 2007 cuts were reported yesterday by trade publication Automotive News and they come on top of a 21% production cut planned for the current quarter.
Newspaper Circ Falls Faster - The circulation of the nation's daily newspapers plunged during the latest reporting period in one of the sharpest declines in recent history, according to data released yesterday. This was the steepest drop in any comparable six-month period in at least 15 years.
Emisphere (EMIS) Hit Hard After Phase II Results – EMIS fell over 20% in after-hours trading last night after the biotech reported results of a Phase 2 trial in type-2 diabetics. Simply put, their oral insulin "had no statistical difference in hypoglycemic episodes, serious adverse events, or insulin antibodies vs. placebo." Ouch!
SEC Sues Delphi Officials - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil fraud charges against nine former executives at Delphi , accusing them of manipulating the company's finances to project a healthy facade while it descended into bankruptcy. But get this, Delphi itself will not have to pay a fine or admit defrauding investors, under a settlement it reached with the S.E.C! Go figure!
Positions in F
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