Minyan Mailbag: Isn't Anyone Bearish Anymore?
From your point of view, is there anyone left that thinks this market can go down from here?
Yes, but I don't think those people are talking to me anymore.
In all seriousness, I don't hear much chatter from bears right now, but that is natural. Bears are more vociferous when the market is going their way, as are bulls when the market is going their way.
Of course, most people say they see long-term problems with the markets, but quickly add that these long-term market problems have been around for many, many years. Some cite that as evidence that they should be ignored. I disagree. The fact that those problems have not yet come home to roost does not make them "false idols." It just makes the present imbalances more severe. But how the big picture relates to the millions of pixels of trading days that comprise it is a different question altogether.
There has developed a "Sure, I see the big picture, but you gotta take what the market gives you" mentality... perhaps perpetuated by the issues John Succo wrote about this afternoon - the Federal Reserve, moral hazard, etc. Now, I don't have any problem with that mentality, and don't want to appear to denigrate it. I take the same view when the indicators I follow say the probabilities are that demand is in control and the potential downside is limited relative to the potential upside, as was the case this Spring.
But I try not to be too smart about it. Honestly, I never have any good idea why the market is rallying, or declining, or staying put, other than to know that whatever "reasons" I read or hear about are probably false. The market will do what it wants to do.
Right now, all I know is that the short-term indicators I follow are positive while the long-term remain negative. There is always the potential that the short-term will turn into the long-term, but until that transition takes place, I will stay in line with my timeframe, which - at least for now - coincides with the long-term indicators I follow.
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