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Random Thoughts

By

Peter, Peter...

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  • I'm rolling up the stop on my metaphorical bull costume to S&P 1195ish (slightly below the 200-day). That keeps my upside open and limits my loss to a flattish trade.

  • To spite her face?

  • The anti-Israel rhetoric is disturbing on a number of levels. Please keep a very close eye on these developments as they could get louder in political circles (particularly given the recent woes of the administration).

  • I may have to ratchet up my GDP estimates based on the shopping habits of my girlfriend.

  • Please note the importance of Exxon (XOM) $58. It's where the oil giant broke down from and will serve as initial resistance.

  • Shocker!

  • Hamzei Analytics and Minyanville are excited to host Phil Erlanger, twice President of MTA and the former Senior Technical Analyst at Fidelity Research & Management. Phil will discuss Market Seasonality in their chatroom on Thursday, November 3rd, right after the close. Click here to register for this important chat.

  • PIN risk!

  • The genesis of the bovine effort was predicated on the perception that Boom Boom Bernanke would, "do what needs to be done." Whether or not that's true remains to be seen but for purposes of the year-end tape, perception is reality and performance anxiety is growing.

  • Buzz Bits from Pepe Depew:

    • Watching the Dow Transports here - 3800 is an important level. The index will give another point and figure buy signal with a move above 3800, while 3825 exceeds the July peak. The equivalent level in the Dow Industrials is 10,750.

    • Scott and I were just talking about the new triple top "buy" signal on the Dow Jones Industrials. The move through 10,450 breaks a triple top on the chart and voids the prior downside target of 9950, basis the 25x3 and 50x3 chart. This is bullish, but it is occurring within a longer-term negative context. As I have said, with the context negative, surprises will occur to the downside. Short-term indicators are positive, as was noted last week, but my position is unchanged based on my time frame. I believe there is far more downside potential than upside here... on a longer-term basis. If the context changes, which of course could happen down the road, then my position will change. But until that long-term context changes I have no choice but to maintain a bearish posture.

  • The CRB is under pressure today (-1.5%) as the metals get smelted and crude gets an attitude adjustment (-2%).

  • Every pigskin journey begins with a single win.

  • The net space is en fuego as Google (+3.5%), Yahoo! (+3.5%) and eBay (+3%) pace the race.

  • Tell Check!

    • Breadth: NYSE internals are 3:1 positive. This is snazzy any way you slice it.
    • Financials: Citigroup (C) continues to tetherball at the 200-day although Duke & Duke is trying to corner the FCOJ market as we speak (read: the XBD is attempting to break out to all-time highs).
    • Levels: The obvious hump (S&P 1200) is below while Boo's last stand (S&P 1210-15) is directly ahead.
    • Sentiment: Still "doubtful" from where I sit (alotta non-believers) although the potential for "forced buying" (negative gamma and performance anxiety) is tangible.

  • I expect to see some backing and filling as traders jockey for position. The longer we can stay above S&P 1200 (with sponsorship from the financials and strong breadth), the higher the probability that Hoofy will hang onto the baton.

  • Bubble? What bubble?

  • Congrats to Minyan Dan Meehan on the birth of his first mini-Minyan!

  • Happy Halloween to all ye faithful. Please be careful tonight if you're behind the wheel. I lost my "brother" Joel to a drunk driver a few years back and wanted to share the story. If you're planning on partying tonight, please take the time to visit him first.


    R.P.
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