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Fancy Pants


I figure that factoid is DUE to be wrong.


A flight of fancy on a windswept field
Standing alone my senses reeled
A fatal attraction holding me fast,
How can I escape this irresistible grasp?

(Pink Floyd)

The morning fun has begun as the bulls give chase and the bears are spun . The economic numbers were relative nonevents and, after the initial flurry of reactive orders, all eyes have refocused on our levels. It feels like deja vu all over again as the fluttery ticks tickle the flicks. All that remains to be seen is whether the vacuum will clean up the bears (and honor the factoid) or if the trapped bulls pull the ripcord into the weekend.

Outside of the obvious technical battles, it's worth noting that today is year end for a bevy of large funds. While it would be great to believe that "window dressing" is a thing of the past, we all know better. As such, expect some drafty action (and a few distractions) as we edge our way through the Halloween muck.

The first try to the sky was rebuffed by the bears and Hoofy's heroes are once again huddling. Breadth, which was minty fresh out of the gate, has edged back to a more balanced posture (S's over N's). The semis have exhaled a bit (can't blame 'em), the financials are holding their own (BKX 950 is next resistance), gold has resumed the zoom and the rest of the markets seem to be in headlights.

I'm keeping a keen eye on Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) as a trading tell. The chatter on the street yesterday was that there was monster size for sale as a function of their employee stock plans (dealer "getting off" the hedge). Also watch IBM (IBM:NYSE) as it continues to flirt with the upside gap fillage. We've already seen this phenomena play out in both individual names (KLA-Tencor (KLAC:NASD) and in the major averages (S&P). As big blue is the ninth largest component of the S&P, it's worth a mention.

I've got some strategic ideas but, as they're not time sensitive, I'll circle back to them. As it stands, the Minx is a bit sluggish and we just took out the NDX lows from yesterday. Wednesday's low, for those looking for a reference/inflection point, reside in and around NDX 1410 (nearest term support). The comparable level in the S&P, so you know, is 1043.

As always, I hope this finds you well.
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