This is one monster mash!
And if you promised you'd love so completely
And you said you would always be true
You swore that you would never leave me, baby
What ever happened to you?
The circle smirk jerked to the downside as Boo's crew faded the opening and staved off the herd. The ensuing goo has filled the opening gaps (S&P and NDX) and some aggressive traders are now looking for a Snapper cameo. I'm not sure if our tortured tortoise comes through but, as it stands, it's anybody's game.
Our young bear wondered aloud yesterday if a "blow out" GDP would be his best shot for his trading plot. Sure enough, on the heels of this morning's report, traders and teletubbies alike were drowning in their own drool. It may prove premature to write the equity epitaph but, again, bear market rallies typically end with good news and giddy lips. While this may just be another hiccup in the upside buttercup, the backdrop for a drop back has certainly been painted.
With that said, breadth is still pretty balanced (slightly negative in the Nazz) and the semis trade with an attitude. If you walked into work right now (and didn't see the pop and drop), you'd think that it's just another day in the fray. The bulls and bears both know the importance of perception (today's reaction) and they'll do everything in their power to win the tug-o-war.
I saw some macros "lean" on the futures earlier but it feels right now like a "tape in headlights." The dollar continues to come under pressure (despite the Snow job), gold has given back most of its gains, Europe holds a bid, bonds are soft, retail and housing trade heavy and tech has a relatively firm tone. Lotsa battles, lotsa stress.
For my part, I made some fades the wussy way this morning by nibbling on some underneaths (read: out-of-the-money puts). I'm still not convinced that this isn't a bear trap and while I've also tried some semi names on the short side, I'm staying uber-tight with those stops. The "common positions" are day trades and will be gone win/lose/draw. The puts, however, will stick around as I feel they're too cheap and should be accumulated. Not advice--just sharing the process. A'right?
Gotta hop. As always, I hope this finds ya jinglin' baby.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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