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Random Thoughts

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...unless you were in the right names at the right times, the looming all-time high will seem somewhat hollow.

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  • On the one hand, we've got outright carnage in the commodity space. If you subscribe to the notion that the asset class boats have risen in synch at the expense of the dollar, that'll serve as an ominous precursor to equity slippage. Other elements--housing stats, inverted yield curves and non-confirmations among them--seem to support this stance.

  • If, on the other hand, you're in the camp that crude spillage serves as a de-facto "easing" for the consumer---debt levels be damned--then some equity acne could very well unfold.

  • I have little doubt which scenario I sense--only question is whether the perception of the latter matter will put the reality of the former storm on hold. That, my friends, is why we watch our tells each day. Clues in the fuse...

  • "Bonds topped right at the cycle high on 9/28 and the cycle low is coming up fast around 10/10 according to some of my friends that specialize in that area. The hedgers remain short, but it feels like time is running out to get long. I usually operate under the 'buy 'em when you can, not when you have to' philosophy and will extend maturities on a sell off." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • This would be considered an uptick in some electoral circles!

  • Speaking of the commodity oddity, the CRB (-2%) has taken out the 2006 lows and is trading at levels unseen since the summer of '05.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • Does the $15 gold smelt put the metal equities on a collision course with XAU 120 (multiple '06 lows)?
    • Do you see market internals creeping better?
    • And wasn't that the one, big drag on the "today's the day" thesis?
    • If today's not the day, do you see S&P 1325 (closing basis) as the trendline from the July low?
    • If Television's JeffMacke® is such a Twins fan, why does he wear my St. Louis Cardinals hat every day?
    • Are you keeping an eye on BKX 114? (Pimples in the piggies--acne to all-time highs--would bode well for the Matador Crowd)

  • Bennet's bubble pieces offer some serious food for thought for the commodity bulls in our hood. Check out his latest comparison of copper vs. the Nazz.

  • My last official act before the holiday induced radio silence? Checking the Oakland score during Sunday's late games and finding them readily ahead of the Browns. Of course, their first win of the season wasn't meant to be and I'm now on the hook for a side bet with Minyan Eric Knight. Gorgeous.

  • There's been alotta chatter about the DNA of this latest push higher. Barron's highlighted it this weekend, Mr. Saut chewed through it yesterday and it continues to make the rounds today. Indeed, unless you were in the right names at the right times, the looming all-time high will seem somewhat hollow.

  • We're getting oh-so-close to unleashing the December 1st MIM-CCA event. There's alotta "there" there and we look forward to sharing this end-of-year Festivus with YOU.

  • And finally, HAPPY BIRTHDAY MINYANVILLE. Lost in the weekend sauce was the fact that the 'Ville turned four on Sunday. Thanks to all ye faithful for making this journey possible.


R.P.

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Positions in metals, financials
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