...to understand where we are, we must appreciate how we got here.
"You know, you could pay me now, and break the ice."
-Vivian Ward, Pretty Woman
Good morning and welcome back to the clean slate. As alotta folks were out-of-pocket yesterday, present company included, I wanted to offer some top-of-the line thoughts as we settle back at the track. In the interest of forthright disclosure, I haven't looked at a flickering tick since Friday's fray and I'm playing a bit of ketchup. As such, I'm gonna invoke my literary license and share 'em as I see 'em.
My first order of business as I strapped in was to chew through the Minyan dew. I paused on the savvy soothsayer's Monday missive as it touched on an all-to-familiar subject matter (asset class reflation vs. dollar devaluation). I know that's in the past---and Minyans wanna prepare for what's to come--but to understand where we are, we must appreciate how we got here.
What caught my eye as I scanned my eight screens? The Art Carnage in commodities as the CRB again tests 300, towels started tossing in energy and the XAU failed anew at 130. What else? The ability of BKX 114 (and, I suppose, the DJIA) to hold as overhead resistance, continued lethargy in the trannies, the roll of the dice in Harrah's and the "eye for an eye, ace for an ace" situation in New York baseball.
My very best thought right now? Defined risk, proactive patience and capital preservation. Alright, those are three thoughts but they all fit together as we ready for the second of our five session set. I'm still long gamma (options) in the form of driller and metal equity calls and financial puts. That positioning stung two weeks ago, worked nicely last week and missed anew yesterday. I'll continue to trade around that bent with one eye on the inevitable confetti and the other on the group pffffft! that, I believe, is being forecast by the deflation in commodities.
Somebody call Martha! Somebody tell Jinxy! Snaps to our very own Greg "Fokker" Roberts for his fantastic column last week, which got scooped up by our friends at the WSJ online.
It's getting close--real close! Please stay tuned for the big announcement on the upcoming MIM-CCA NYC Festivus on Friday, December 1st. Minyans in Manhattan will feature an afternoon of Buzz & Banter, moderated by Minyan Michael Santoli, and featuring Jeff Saut, Steve Galbraith, Steve Shobin, Greg Weldon, Stephanie Pomboy,
Bennet Sedacca, John Succo, Scott Reamer and yours truly as we cast an eye towards 2007:The Year Ahead. That evening, we'll be honoring Trent Tucker, formerly of the NY Knicks, with the first annual "Ruby" at the Critters Choice Awards. Details to follow so please, Minyans, save the date--it's for the kids!
I'm gonna hop over to the Buzz, Minyans--I'll see you there.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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