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After Wednesday's ramp, we mentioned that advancing issues beat declining issues by 4.8-to-1 on the NYSE. Such a positive skew is very rare and we felt compelled to see what it meant over the history of the S&P 500. According to my friend and data source and fellow Minyan, Jason Goepfert at, there have been only 54 occurrences since 1965 of NYSE advancing issues beating declining issues by 4.5-to-1 or greater ratio. If you strip out those high ratio days that were within 3 months of the first instance, there were only 29 Initial occurrences. Taking it a step further, we looked for only those initial occurrences in the context of a market trading above the 200-day moving average (most similar to Thursday's occurrence). There were only 11 instances of such positive breadth when the SPX was above its widely followed long-term moving average. The following are the results of all three ways to study it and what took place 90 days after;

Total Occurrences of NYSE 4.5-to-1 or Greater Breadth: Out of 54 instances, 77% of the time, the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 3 months later with an average gain of 8.3%.

Total Initial Occurrences: Out of 29 instances, 69% of the time, the SPX was up 3 months later with an average gain of 6.4%.

Total above 200-day moving average Initial Occurrences: Out of 11 instances, 10 were positive and 1 was negative with an average gain of 8.3%, a maximum gain of 19%, and the one loss of 4.4% in the signal of 11/26/79.

We understand that decimalization and the introduction of non-operating companies into the NYSE must somehow figure into the mix. At any market juncture, there is always going to be something that is different or everyone would follow the same course of action. The financial market action, fundamental and technical backdrop and geopolitical landscape continually change - and are fairly unpredictable. Human nature tends to repeat itself.
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Way to go Jason!
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