Freaky Friday Randoms
By Todd Harrison Oct 29, 2004 8:55 am
Seven hours till our requisite two-day respite!
- There's been a ton of spirited debate regarding yesterday's active afternoon on the Buzz. Snoop Tony Dwyer pinged me to ask if I really felt the dialogue was educational or if it was more of an ursine venting session. I told him that there is a collective benefit in sharing disparate opinions as they provoke thought and stimulate thinking. This topic has been the big stinkin' elephant in the middle of the room and while I have an active imagination (it wouldn't be the first time I've envisioned a metaphorical critter!), there is no harm in discussing what some of us feel but few actually say. The gamut of education often includes topics that aren't comfortable but we must keep an open mind (both ways) if we hope to expand our horizons.
- The NDX is testing the 2004 downtrend line this morning at 1492. If you draw a line from the tops in January and June, you'll see exactly what I'm looking at. Do levels matter? They haven't lately but in an evolving psychology, it's worth noting actionable levels that litter the landscape.
- Mutual fund year-end today and while most (cough) "portfolio massaging" occurred in the last few days, we could still see some jockeying as we edge to the bell. It'll be interesting to see how the nets and truckers (hiding spots) trade in the sessions ahead.
- 3.7% GDP with negative real rates? In a new bull market? Am I eating crazy pills?
- Big brother is watching!
- Minyanville is always looking for respected viewpoints. If you know of anyone who fits the bill (we could use a lucid bull) please feel free to make suggestions.
- You know that you're working too hard when the holiday decorations in the window of Duane Reade serve as a soft seasonal calendar.
- "Spoon-feeding in the long run teaches us nothing but the shape of the spoon." --E.M. Forster (thank you Bloomberg)
- I've weighed the possibility that the sudden and sassy Wednesday divergence (crude, equities, gold, fixed income) was the coincident unwind of a macro trade. While the timing was curious (in front of the first China rate hike in nine years) and the size was particularly meaty, it is possible. Serendipitous but possible.
- I, for one, will be happy to see this election pass so we can stop acting like a nation divided and start the collective healing process.
- The race for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma is so close that independent candidate Sheila Bilyeu might take enough votes from the other candidates to influence the outcome. Bilyeu has gained notoriety in the last two decades by filing numerous lawsuits against the federal government (all eventually dismissed) demanding the removal of a radio-like device the military allegedly planted in her head in the 1970s. The device, she said, mostly sends her messages that are highly critical of her. She added in a later lawsuit that President Clinton had ordered her gassed and had stolen her dog. (KOCO-TV, Oklahoma City)
- As long as the financials are firm, we could see rotational corrections but the broader tape should be buffered from serious slappage. XBD 130 and BKX 97.70 (200-day) will be the first support zones underneath (if and when).
- Follow-up on the terror chatter of the last few days.
- The landscape is littered with two-sided risk as agendas and emotion swirl towards Tuesday. Will the election be contested? There are thousands of lawyers and millions of billable hours waiting to pounce. Perhaps that scenario is too telegraphed now--I don't know--but heroes belong in Boston rather than the market.
- A sub-adult bear? I resemble that remark!
- Successful trading is all about an advantageous risk/reward dynamic. If you can line up your ducks (breadth, piggies, semis, crude, cyclicals) and craft a methodology that adapts to the market (trailing stops), odds of winning are greatly enhanced.
- In honor of the hockey strike, we should all rent Slapshot! this weekend. I'm listening to the song!
- Good luck Minyans--hit 'em hard and let's end this hairy week with some jingle in our jeans.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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