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Random Thoughts


Mad Monkey! That funky monkey!

  • You bad man Monkey Boy!

  • Having picked up some potential LBO chatter in the big cap pharma space--and looking at the washed out nature of some of these charts--I've made some nibbles on out-month upside cheapie calls in that complex.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo, Peggy Noonan just penned a piece over at the Journal which echos your assessment of a diverging social class and the consequences. Quite sobering. Makes you redouble your praying efforts and keeping your left hand up (if you're a righty)! Minyan Tobias"

  • Who knew that Bernanke was a Packer fan?

  • "We're now headed into what has traditionally been one of the more consistently strong periods based on the calendar. Buying the S&P cash index at the close four days prior to the end of October and holding through the first three days of November would have resulted in 73% winning trades since 1950, with an average return of +1.6% (avg drawdown -1.2%, avg max gain +2.6%). 10 out of the last 11 would have been winners, with the one loss being -0.2%. Using the NDX, you would have had 17 out of 20 winning trades with an average of +3.4%. Using the SOX, 11 out of 11 winners with an average of +6.6%. Seasonality is very rarely a solid basis for a trade in and of itself, but it does make one wonder if today's weakness is setting us up for a re-test of the recent highs over the coming week." -- Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz.

  • Auditions began today for Minyanville extras.

  • Is that a pledge pin on your uniform?!?

  • The Research in Motion (RIMM) action is a textbook real-time lesson for ye faithful to file away. If bad news comes out and the stock doesn't react to the downside, chances are that it'll lift to the upside.

  • The only bullish thing on my screen is the action in the money center banks (as they poke and probe at BKX 98-98.5 resistance). On the other side of the ride, breadth is 2:1 negative, the homies are gettin' rolled, the semis are now below the 200-day (watch this please), the trannies are off a percent, the energy patch reversed lower and the small caps are a wee bit smaller. Uh, yeah, a bit lopsided...but if the piggies can light a spark in the dark--namely, the brokers as they sniff at all-time highs (XBD 181ish)--we just might see Snapper catch the pressers leaning the wrong way.

  • Wicked Stuff.

  • We're just two lost souls swimming in a fish bowl...

  • Note the volatility sisters as they spurt ahead by a finski (5%).

  • Keeping Fannie front and center.

  • Rotating Risk (Buzz 10:29)

    With the tape a bit sluggish (breadth 9:5 negative) and the piggies trading higher into resistance, I'm making some partial sales on the bank exposure I recently added. I've still got two legs in the bull costume (with a stop below 1178) but I wanted to rotate a lil' risk and, hopefully, let my first sale be my worst sale.

  • "We don't think the SEC subpoena of GM's pension accounting will find anything illegal. But what it will do is put focus on some of the absurd assumptions the company is making to make the funding look better. That is not good for the stock price, but not something that may trigger a bankruptcy. At least not for now." -- John Succo (position in GM)

  • Don't mess with Daisy!

  • We're on indictment watch in the city of critters as the Beltway braces for its latest bruise.

  • Bam Bam for Boom Boom?

  • I'm hoppin' to Sautville tonight to spend some time with the savvy soothsayin' sommelier and his Raymond James network. As we'll be making the rounds in Tampa, I'll be out of the 'Ville tomorrow and back in the saddle on Monday. Thanks kindly for your understanding and fare ye well in the minxy swell!

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