The greatest trick that Hoofy ever pulled...
Pure Tape Talk...
I enter today's session with two legs in my metaphorical bull costume (50% conviction on the long side) as a function of my recent nibbles and bits. I'm quite conscious of looming resistance in the S&P (and the banks, for that matter) and sense that the battle of 1200 will continue to wage. I've set my "stop" on this trading try ("spec" side of my portfolio) below S&P 1178 but may be a bit tighter (rolling up stops) in some of my bank exposure.
I've been weighing alotta crosscurrents in my crowded keppe as I balance my big picture bearish bent with this opportunistic attempt. There's a natural tendency when trading to suffer from selective hearing-you know, when the data points that support your posture echo loud while variant views are subconsciously discounted? It's human nature, my friend, but we must remain conscious of it. There's no crying in baseball, Macke, and there's certainly no room for rationalization in trading.
I said a Boom Boom Boom...
One of the reasons that my odds of a year-end rally upticked was Ben Bernanke' s nod as the new head cheese. The first vibe I scribed upon hearing this news (which was a good hour before the mainstream press picked it up) was that the dollar was gonna get roasted and toasted. Not a shocker given the man's proclivity for helicopter monetary policy-and a southbound greenback was the likely path of least resistance to begin with-and I extrapolated an attendant uptick in investor psychology.
I wonder, however, if Big Ben will look to assert his independence by bucking conventional wisdom? It's sorta like that girl in high school that everyone knew was "accommodative" (you know the type) but, by the time you finally plucked up the nerve to ask her to dance, she pruded up to prove a point. I'll continue to offer that either the dollar must devalue or asset classes will deflate in the years ahead. And when push comes to shove, I'm willing to bet the Boom Boom will flip the switch on the world's largest printing press.
Housekeeping and Giving Back...
It's hard to believe that we're already talking about holiday parties and year-end agendas. We're doing our part at MVHQ to improve the Minyan experience and hit '06 with fresh verve and newfound pizzazz. We're building the breadth of our voice across a multitude of channels and you can expect these critters to make quite the splash as we turn the corner. We're psyched that you're along for the ride and look forward to sharing the vibes and energy.
With regard to our philanthropic efforts, we're gonna build on the incredible success of our hurricane relief efforts ($55,500 to the National Education Association to rebuild the libraries of five schools on the Gulf Coast) with the auction of our all-star guitar signed by Warren Buffett, George Soros, Peter Lynch, Jim Rogers and many others. The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, in association with MissionFish powered by eBay, will begin this highly anticipated event on December 7th. That date is, after all, Ruby's birthday.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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