Hump Day Randoms
By Todd Harrison Oct 27, 2004 8:39 am
It's time to mount the hump!
- "We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." - John F. Kennedy
- The insurers found a hole in the Red Dye defense yesterday and ran up the middle. The ability of the financials to build on that momentum will craft our trading playbook in the days ahead. The brokers remain a focus as they try to bum rush XBD 130.
- Speaking of Red Dye, a few new bears arrived in town as the Investor's Intelligence readings ran from 22.1 to 25.5. Along those lines, there was a spate of new vacancies in Matador City as the bovine bumped from 58.9 to 56.4.
- I don't really care WHO lost the 380 tons of explosives in Iraq. I just want somebody to find them before they find us.
- Time, as Ruby used to say, is the most precious of commodities.
- The only thing more devastating than collapsing after establishing a 3-0 lead in the ALCS is....
- Hoofy is hanging his hat on the notion that the stock market is the world's largest thermometer and is playing for a sharp rally INTO the election. In his "perfect world," the ramp started yesterday, continues through next week (and through resistance) as Dubya wins decisively and crude falls sharply. A bitter Boo doesn't believe him but knows better than to discount it entirely--he's seen some strange things in the last few years.
- We saw a series of buy programs take the tape yesterday. I don't know how much of that demand was a function of the S&P add/delete.
- Texas two-steppin' down Debt Drive.
- The dollar starts the Hump resting directly on DXY 85 (8-year lows).
- Wanna real-time example of volatility expansion? I bought some Google (GOOG:NASD) puts (the morning after they reported last week) when the stock was up $20 and trading at $170. Yesterday morning, while the stock was up an additional $20 ($190), those same puts were UP 50%. I don't own 'em anymore but the phrase "it's better to be lucky than smart" seems apt.
- ''In prior years, there were three buyers for every house on the market," said Jim Nagle of Coldwell Banker in Lexington. ''Now there are three houses for every buyer."
- We've been working on some fairly meaty things behind the scenes in the city of critters. It's exciting--and often exhausting--as we chase our dream and I would be remiss if I didn't thank ye faithful for your continued support and enthusiasm. A vision is only as powerful as those who believe in it.
- A bear market doesn't mean we trade straight down--that would be too easy. Rather, it's an environment where profits are elusive, traps are abundant and the action is haphazard.
- I wonder if I'm gonna one day listen to old school rap and my grandkids will mock me for being out of touch.
- I often muse that there is a bull market and bear market simultaneously competing and the bottom line is the residual friction. Right now, Hoofy has liquidity at his back while Boo is riding the tide of an energy shock. When one of these elements gives way, the attendant bubbles (housing, psychology, debt, derivatives) either wake up or slip into a deeper slumber.
- How am I playing? I've got some cheap puts on (I sleep better that way) and will "trade around" my position as my market tells dictate the direction. It's a much different style than I used to employ but this is a much different market and the onus is on us to adapt.
- Sometimes I wonder if "it's me" or if we really are getting conflicting and confusing messages from the powers that be.
- I can go on forever with these random rants but it's time to make the doughnuts. I sincerely hope that you make a coupla shekels today. Good luck.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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