Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Close in the Green
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Earnings Report - MV News
- McAfee (MFE) reported 3Q non-GAAP EPS of $0.36 vs $0.30 cons on revs of $287.8 mln vs $275.9 mln cons.
- Hartford Financial (HIG) reported 3Q EPS of $2.30 vs $2.25 cons.
- Microsoft (MSFT) reported 1Q EPS of $0.35 vs $0.31 cons on revs of $10.81 bln vs $10.72 bln cons.
- Sun Microsystems (SUNW) reported 1Q EPS of ($0.01) including charges and not comparable to ($0.04) cons. SUNW reported revs of $3.19 bln vs $3.19 bln exp.
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:57 PM
- I just hung up with Jeff Saut, who told me that his pops used to say that one's mind can't concentrate on two things at the same time. That would explain a lot! I, for one, look forward to focusing on some fine wine with the savvy soothsayer late next week.
- While I'll be on the road for the better part of the next two weeks, I'm gonna try to chime in as much as possible. And please know that, once we chew through this trip, I'll be chained down and intensely focused into year-end.
- There ain't much "not to like" about today's action. Orderly upside, strong leadership (brokers, homies, biotech, Russell), good breadth and acne on the charts.
- With that said, risks remain and discipline should trump conviction whether you're hanging with Tony Dwyer or bangin' on a Boo flier.
- With this (and a little bit of that), I've gotta flip lids and chew through my to do's. I sincerely hope you're finding your way and, if not, that you're keeping it in perspective.
- May peace be with you.
Position in financials
Streakin' - Jason Roney - 1:45 PM
Why do we say "past performance is not always indicative of future results?" The S&P 500 is thus far shrugging off the negative bias for today's trade. An up close today would mark the first time SP futures were up 6 days in a row through the FOMC meeting and then closed higher again the next day.
Is the potential for seven up days in a row on the S&P 500 rare, medium rare or just well done?
I took a look at prior occurrences of seven up days in a row on the S&P 500 since the March 2003 low and found three: Nov 25, 2005, Sep 30, 2005 and July 15, 2005.
But what about eight in row? I found two: Sep 4, 2003 and Mar 21, 2003.
Up nine in row? One: Nov 5, 2004
Dollar Thrills and Spills? - Kevin Depew - 1:26 PM
Jason Goepfert's article on the dollar notes the sea change in dollar positions by large speculators who are holding 67% of all outstanding long positions, one of the higher percentages in history. I have been bullish on the dollar but here are the things I'm watching for going forward in PnF and DeMark terms. Here are three looks at the dollar in PnF terms.
- The long-term chart shows the primary trend is negative but the DX/Y has been in a column of Xs (meaning demand is in control) since June. It will take a move to 84 to reverse this back down.
- An intermediate view of the dollar shows a potential triple top with a move to 87.5, but a reversal down from that resistance level occurring if the dollar hits 85.50.
- A short-term view shows the dollar shows it has already reversed down to a column of Os but remains on a Pnf buy signal with the nearest potential sell signal at 84.75.
- In DeMark terms there are no TD-Sequential signals or setups appearing on the chart, but good DeMark TD-Line support at 85.50, 85.40 and 84.90.
Meanwhile, although the dollar is important, I am a bit more concerned about the yen and its relationship to U.S. equities. As Stephanie Pomboy pointed out earlier this week, a shift in the dollar/Yen fundamentals could force a dramatic liquidity event, which would undoubtedly carry over into U.S. equities.
Is such a shift forthcoming? Probabilities say yes. The Yen has registered a weekly DeMark TD-Combo buy signal and the chart in PnF terms shows the downside objective of .84 Yen has already been achieved.
Out of the LOOP - Adam Michael - 11:07 AM
Crude is holding over $60/barrel after the bullish drawdown in inventories yesterday. A move back over $62ish would put me back into the neutral/bullish camp. Commercials are still not as "net long" as I'd like to seem them and open interest in crude futures is near all-time highs.
There was speculation yesterday that Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) was down last week for 3 days due to weather. At 1.2 million barrels/day, this would have had an effect on the larger than expected drop in inventories yesterday. I have not been able to confirm this with personnel at LOOP, but have heard from several sellside energy shops so thought I would pass it along.
As far as the energy shares go, many of the large caps are near all time highs. I would like to see how the energy shares hold up during a broader market decline. Right now, it smells more like the rotation game (out of financials/tech and into energy/metals). My guess is the bottom may be in, but additional testing (of the lows) is needed.
Here we go again....... - Bennet Sedacca - 9:12 AM
Bonds are gaining again this morning. Right into the teeth of resistance. Again. 107-16 to 107-24 still important resistance with the major trend line in the 109-16 range being the most important. See the chart here.
What did I hear from the Fed? Well my take is they TALK hawkish and ACT dovish. M2/M3 growth and a lowering of margin requirements is NOT tight monetary policy in my book. So I continue to believe these trend lines will eventually be broken. The timing is tough, but these positions, as stated previously, are long-term in nature. My firm also added to some longer term agency bonds on weakness lately at nice discounts and good spreads to Treasuries.
We just have to wait and see, but so far, I like what I see....
Position in Treasuries, MBS and Agencies
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