Fade the Fade?
By Todd Harrison Oct 26, 2005 8:37 am
Let's do it!
I wanna tell you how it's gonna be
You're gonna give your love to me
I wanna love you night and day
You know my love not fade away
Good morning and welcome back to the costume track. With Halloween just a few days away, the critters are out and ready to play. Boo's on the left with indictments in hand and resistance above where he'll make a stand. On the right is big Hoofs, a bovine magician, who's got a whole lotta year-end ambition. Which side will prevail and take home the bacon, leaving the other critter mistaken? We'll know soon enough as we ready to jump and hike up the hill and over the Hump!
Not long ago we were hangin' with Sammy, slithering through a slow summer whammy. When the VXO was flirting with hat size levels, I couldn't help but wonder if we had, in fact, arrived on the other side of the bubble. Remember, Minyans, the opposite of love isn't hate-it's apathy-and the tape was about as apathetic as I ever wanna see it. The autumn winds have arrived as the minxy leaves shake from the trees and flickering ticks are up to their tricks.
If expiration, earnings, hurricanes and beltway blunders weren't enough, our new sheriff certainly shook up the mojo. I offered my humble take in yesterday's opening missive-he'll give more steroids for a sick patient-along with thought that his appointment could shift year-end psychology towards Matador City. Consistent with that vibe, and with defined risk below, I nibbled on some exposure (banks and semis) and slipped two legs into my metaphorical bull costume (50% conviction on the long side).
Old school Minyans might be scratchin' their keppe as I typically lean against resistance in situations like this. It's not like me to anticipate the anticipator, particularly with a textbook churn under S&P 1200, energy prices that are crunching Santa and structural imbalances that are getting worse, not better. So why the try? My sense is that the timing of Bernanke' s appointment was strategic in nature, planted to sow the seeds of confidence in an already shaken consumer. That may or may not happen but the key to the tape is whether portfolio managers believe that it can.
Please keep in mind that this effort is on the "speculative" side of my portfolio, a pool of money that I use to make hay when I sense sunshine (or rainfall). My longer-term eggs, which I'm much more comfy with, are laid throughout select energy and metal plays. If Hoofy doesn't come through for us, I have defined risk (S&P 1178) and will take my lumps (wouldn't be the first time). If he does, I'll look to roll my stop up to S&P 1200ish (current ceiling) and use that as a floor map of the future.
On an entirely more important note, we are jacked to announce that The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education (check out our new digs) has selected the National Education Association as the beneficiary of our September hurricane relief efforts. The Minyanship raised over $53,000 and 100% of that money will be used to rebuild the libraries in five affected schools. As we ready to battle it out and stress our way through another day, please take a moment to reflect on this moment. It wouldn't be possible without your continued support and for that, you should be very proud.
Good luck today.
position in select semis, banks, energy and metals
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