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Reminder from CB



I hesitate to put much stock in seasonals surrounding month end or (in this case) presidential elections. But for those that didn't make it to Crested Butte, I wanted to share the data.

Has the SPX shown a bias to the days surrounding Presidential Election day?

The SPX gained ground 8 of last 10 days prior to the election. Conversely, the SPX finished lower 7 of last 10 days after the election. If we look at the three day period before and after the election, the same bias exists.

In general, has there been any bias to the final few days of October?

Looking back to 1964, there is a slight upward bias but nothing unusual. Specifically, the SPX finished higher 52% of the time on the final day of October and the final three days of the month were higher 60% of the time.

However, there is a more pronounced bias to the upside over the last 20 years. During that time, the SPX recorded a net gain over the final three days of October 15 of the last 20 years (75%). Remember past performance does not indicate future results.

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