Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Slip
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights.
Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the Buzz & Banter.
Really? - Todd Harrison - 3:45 PM
- I know. Nutty, right? Repeat after me, respect but don't defer. Respect but don't defer. Respect but don't defer...
- Another day, more onion breadth. That's the Boo view.
- Hoofy's take? "You can't take it with you when you're gone and they can't get 'em down anymore."
- Fish head music!
- OK, so Microsoft looks like a triple top breakout, right? (yes) But here's the rub, techicals don't "matter" into binary events (earnings). IF they deliver, however, technicians will climb on board, setting that level (lets call it $32) as a stop. Keep that metric in mind as the numbers come out.
- You wanna know what's nutty (other than Austin Powers coffee)? The fact that Baidu matters more than Microsoft. Sorta sums up current sentiment, right?
- You say Uncle, I say Sam. Uncle (Sam) Uncle (Sam).
- Yes, I'm a bit punch drunk but not a shocker, right? This tape is full of roundhouse rights and sharp left jabs. Sigh... and so it goes.
- Oh yeah, one more thing. Lotsa Minyans have been weighing in with snappage on the MV mission, asking what they can do and how they can help. SO, since you (they) asked, I'll say "Come play with us at Festivus---it's gonna be a ton of fun with a slew of human capital and we're raising money for the kids. THAT is the Minyan way."
- May peace be with you, my friends, and have a mindful night.
Randoms - Fil Zucchi - 3:16 PM
- Does anyone believe in WaMu's (WM) 8.2% dividend yield? What happens if they cut it? Remember what happened when Aunt Fannie (FNM) chopped its dividend?
- I tried to talk myself into buying some Riverbed (RVBD) down another $3, but I was not persuasive enough. This one is not cheap enough until $25.
- Remember Minyans, if you are in any kind of Auction Rate Securities, which many brokers push as "almost as safe as Treasuries", they may be if if they are AAA rated on their own merits (cough... cough... I can't believe I just wrote that), but if they are "AAA insured"... insurer Ambac (ABK) is not looking so hot today.
- A wise Minyan informs me that there may be some good news coming from Akamai (AKAM) when it holds its investor confab in the next couple of weeks.
- I have not let go of my F5 Networks' (FFIV) puts yet. It's just acting too lousy.
- Standard Pacific (SPF) reports after the close.
Positions in AKAM and FFIV.
Giving Up The Ghost? - Jeffrey Cooper - 11:13 AM
- So I'm wondering: With Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) doing a Spike and Reversal pattern yesterday on earnings, will Greenhill (GHL), another financial that spiked on earnings, give up the ghost as well?
- Mastercard (MA) looks interesting from the long side. if you trade the stock it seems to pop up every day for the past month and drop. This morning it dropped from the get-go and crawled back--- an ORB was the tell that it was going to explode. Since this behavior occurred from the key 50dma it was a solid set up.
Position in GHL and MA.
Downshift in Consumer Spending Mindset - Mike Mish Shedlock - 8:05 AM
Talbots (TLB), a specialty retailer, slashes fall forecast, sees a loss:
Talbots Inc. on Wednesday revised its forecast for the fall season, citing weaker than expected sales in its namesake brand, and said a gloomy economy is weighing on consumers. Talbots said in addition to its lackluster sales, it's being hit by an increasingly conservative "consumer spending mindset," dismal industry outlook for the holidays and an uncertain economic environment. The company also said it will be out of compliance with its financial covenants.
For the third quarter, Talbots expects a loss in the range of 20 cents to 25 cents a share, including 7 cents a share of one-time expense related to executive compensation and professional consulting fees. For the fourth quarter, Talbots currently anticipates a loss per share in the range of 5 cents to 10 cents, including 9 cents a share of one-time expenses.
Earlier this month The Gap (GPS), Target (TGT), J.C. Penny (JCP), Wal-Mart (WMT), Nordstrom (JWN), and the Children's Place (PLCE) all lowered earnings estimates blaming "warm weather".
See Cargo Decline Portends Consumer Weakness and Heat Cools Retail Sales for more on the lame weather excuse.
The key sentence in all of this is easy to piece together: "The consumer spending mindset is increasingly conservative." One by one, and store by store, consumers are throwing in the towel. This does not bode well for retail store expansion, holiday sales, or hiring plans. It also does not bode well for an economy 100% dependent on an ever increasing expansion of credit.
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