Buzz Bits: Dow Creeps Higher, Nasdaq Gains
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Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the Buzz and Banter.
Earnings Report - MV News
- Johnson Controls (JCI) reports 4Q EPS of $1.86 continuing operations vs. $1.85 cons on revs of $8.15 bln vs. $8.16 bln cons. JCI guides 1Q EPS to $0.80-$0.85 continuing operations vs. $0.84 cons.
- Symantec (SYMC) reports 2Q non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 excluding stock based comp. vs. $0.23 cons which includes stock based comp on non-GAAP revs of $1.28 bln vs. $1.30 bln cons. SYMC guides 3Q non-GAAP EPS to $0.29-$0.30 vs. $0.30 FC on revs of $1.325 bln-$1.355 bln vs. $1.36 bln cons.
Buzz in the Afternoon - Todd Harrison - 2:25 PM
A'ight, so core inflation has been elevated, economic growth slowed and the housing market is cooling?
If Debbie Downer was a chef, she would argue that this is a recipe for stagflation.
She would also remind Minyans that the first move (post-FOMC) is typically the false move.
Key tells include market breadth (9:5, flat on Nazz), the BKX (under 114), the dollar (DXY -35 bips) and Goldman Sachs (for schnitz and giggles).
Position in GS
Some perspective on volatility - Bennet Sedacca - 12:20 PM
Jeff Saut and I were pinging back and forth recently on the chance for an 'outlier event' to occur in the market. I am not necessarily a directional guy, more into asset allocation. In other words, I don't short the market and fight it, I just adjust exposure in line with my own model and methodology. So currently, my firm is conservative and just making 'less money,' not losing as are the shorts.
So I decided to look at what happens to the VIX/VXO on along term (20 year) basis. See the chart here. In odd times, odd things can happen. And folks, these are odd times.
And a little perspective never hurt anyone.
Take Five - Kevin Depew - 12:11 PM
Taking a look at S&P 500 DeMark signals there were a number of high profile names registering DeMark TD-Sequential sell signals yesterday. Sorry, there were no DeMark TD-Sequential buy signals and there have been only two buy signals in S&P 500 stocks since October 18. But that is what price exhaustion techniques are supposed to do - show up as sell signals implying potential trend exhaustion after the market rises, and buy signals as the market declines.
Anyway, Citigroup (C), Danaher (DHR), Federated (FD), Goodyear Tire (GT) and Wal-Mart (WMT) all registered TD-Sequential sell signals on the daily charts yesterday.
Crosschecking those stocks in PnF terms, C (.25x3 chart at StockCharts.com) shows a potential price objective of 48.25. A move to 50.75 today would change the probabilities of that, however. DHR still has a PnF count to 78. FD still shows a PnF upside count to 49. WMT has an incomplete price objective of 62.
GT is the most bearish chart of the five in PnF terms with important trendline resistance at 15.5 (see the chart here).
Hello?...McFly?!...Anybody home? - Fil Zucchi - 10:50 AM
I won't belabor the ugliness of the existing home sale numbers (month's supply in particular) because everyone is now convinced that they don't matter. People are going to make back the losses in real estate equity by playing the Minx, just like Boom-Boom likes it. That won't stop a bunch of public homebuilders from ending up 6-ft under, and local homie Comstock Homes (CHCI) has just taken a small lead over Dominion Homes (DHOM) in the race for first place, by allegedly defaulting on a $2 mln payment.
Ok - I can't resist - I gotta belabor the point. Regarding condo sales, please note the current $0.27 estimate for all of FY '07 EPS estimates for WCI Communities (WCI); WCI is the most prominent player in the high end condo insanity. In February of this year the '07 estimate was north of $4.90. And remember that $6.20 estimate for Beazer Homes (BZH) back in September? It's now $3.68.
No worries Minyans - Boom Boom has got it all under control.
Position in BZH
GM Blows Out The Number! Another 52-week high! - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:10 AM
General Motors (GM) Earnings FANTASTIC! GM lost $2.94 per share last year at this time, but earlier reported that it made $0.93 per share, crushing the $0.45 analyst estimate! The 3Q revenue was $48.8 billion, which was a record, and throw in the fact that its exposure to Delphi was reduced by $4.5 billion!
Amazon (AMZN) Jumps After Heat Seeker Shows Surge of Buying! This one was all over my firm's Heat Seeker yesterday, and those put sellers and call buyers are being richly rewarded today as shares of the world's largest internet retailer trade up over 14% on revenue growth of 24%.
Refco CFO Indicted – Robert Trosten joins former CEO Phillip Benett, as both have now been charged by the US Attorney's Office with fraud, conspiracy and other charges related to accusations they helped hide $430 million of bad customer debt.
Merrill Cuts Seagate (STX) – The world's largest brokerage reduced its rating on the hard-disk drive maker to neutral from a buy this morning, citing tougher pricing pressures and integration issues around STX's Maxtor purchase.
Positions in AMZN, GM
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