Good luck Minyans!
Raven hair and Ruby lips
Sparks fly from her finger tips
Echoed voices in the night
She's a restless spirit on an endless flight
Good morning and welcome back to the flickering flack. With family and Minyans and pigskins behind, it's time to gear up for a fresh five day grind. It was a raucous respite as we celebrated the Margarita Maven's 85th birthday and collectively enjoyed the fruits of her labor. Now, with a wonderfully Wicked weekend in the rear-view, we turn our attention to the tape and the promises that she holds.
With expiration crosscurrents laid to rest (October's expiry was a particularly powerful cycle) the critters are diggin' in for another wild week. In addition to the avalanche of earnings-1/3 of the S&P will report-we'll also balance a bevy of Beeks (economic reports), Wilma's Rubble (don't tell Betty), two-sided technicals and increasingly anxious investor psychology.
Minyan Ed shot me an email over the weekend that I wanted to share with ye faithful. It sorta sums up where I'm at:
"Toddo, I am aware of your long term view of energy and metals outperforming tech and financials but if (big if) we have a year-end rally, wouldn't it be of the NASDAQ, semis and biotech variety (at the expense of energy and metals)? Thanks, Minyan Ed"
I opined on Friday that the Nazz currently feels "best of breed" as the NDX and SOX both falsely broke down (through their 200-day) and snapped back nicely. Further, while I'm not sold on the year-end rally thesis, another "try" towards S&P 1200 (N's over S's) wouldn't shock me as Wilma fears subside and performance anxiety kicks in. That "trade"-if it unfolds-does little to shift my longer-term vibe that energy and metals have secular winds at their backs.
Two quick observations with regard to the above mentioned thought. First, until proven otherwise, the month of October is a simple "churn" under defined resistance (S&P 1200). Boo knows this, of course, and will look to trade that fade if and when it arrives. Second, for purposes of Hoofy's self-preservation, I told him that he can try anything as long as he's disciplined. And if he's disciplined, he would be acutely aware that S&P 1175 (1168) are "rip cord" levels for bovine worldwide.
There's alotta catalysts floating around, including some that may be yet unforeseen (keep an ear to the Beltway banter). Discipline and patience remain our staunchest allies in the fight for performance so please remember that we need not play every trade, we just need to may hay when we do. I'm gonna flip my lid and head to the Buzz so I'll see you there, Mon Frere, with fresh kicks and a positive attitude.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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