The Dark Spark
Have a fantastic weekend!
Now watch as the ball revolves and the nighttime falls.
Again the hunt begins, again the bloodwind calls.
By and by, the morning sun will rise,
But the darkness never goes from some men's eyes.
The afternoon muse continues to cruise as Boo teaches Hoofy that he too can bruise. The Battle of 1020 has lasted the better part of the afternoon and, as the gorillas play tennis, eyebrows are starting to raise. Could this possibly be a precursor to a Jinxy type blink or is that what the bulls want you to believe? It's a salient question, to be sure, and it's floating around as we edge towards a much needed and well deserved two-day respite.
It's Inflection City out there as the SOX sits on the 50-day, the NDX fills the gap, the S&P flirts with its issues and the BKX is trying to hold 920 (after failing at its gap fillage yesterday). Further, the issue of leadership must be raised. Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) is now down on the year, General Electric (GE:NYSE) has been beaten with an ugly stick, the semis suffered a serious setback (KLAC:NASD)) and the retailers got crunched on negative ISI data. It's up to the financials, folks, and if the piggies start to get wiggy, Boo will get brazen.
There is a handful of earnings next week although it's nothing like the madness we've just witnessed. Monsieur Beeks will also be active as he pieces out the orange crop report throughout the five sessions. With earnings in the rear-view mirror (for the most part), the focus will shift to the economy and posturing (psychology) as we trudge ahead.
To be sure, the bulls will brag if we hold these levels (trendline support) and we very well might (for now). Still, it wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor and it's not over now. There is zero fear out there, a stacked bull camp (bell curve) and, from my perch, less than thrilling validation from corporate America. The wild card is liquidity but, as the Marlins prove, the wild card can sometimes challenge the champ.
At the risk of redundancy, I'm sticking with my thesis and watching the tape like Graig Nettles. In other words, I'm on my toes and pounding my glove as I watch the action unfold in front of me. I made some disciplined covers (read: buys) as a function of price but I think Boo ultimately has a lot of racetrack in front of him. That doesn't mean it'll be a straight line, mind you, but the conditional elements of a downside ding remain in place. If our young bear is correct, we're in the uber-early stages of the denial-migration-panic trade.
I'm gonna remove the toothpicks from my eyelids and focus on the close. This has been a hairy few weeks and I, for one, am looking forward to turning it off and tuning it out. Remain lucid into the close, Minyans, as the decisions you make will dictate the risk profile that you take home. The last thing you wanna do is spend the weekend thinking about ticks and tape.
Fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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