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Random Thoughts


If you're getting bullish on upticks and bearish on downticks, take a deep breath and a step back.

  • Warning to all Greek shipping heirs!

  • T-minus 45 bips until the VXO is a single digit midget. We've spoken, in the past, about how volatility is the inverse of liquidity. THAT is the other side of the "compression" trade that would auger for an upcoming outsized movement. That is, of course, unless liquidity abates.

  • This should put all debates on the housing bubble to rest.

  • Lest you wanted to Pimco your trading ride.

  • Despite the snazzy top line proxies, market breadth has yet to confirm the upside (3:2, whereas 2:1 is typically a strong trading tell).

  • Despite the slippage in crude (-1.6%) and the smelting in the metals, the CRB is hanging near the flat line as a function of gains in coffee, cocoa and live cattle.

  • "Toddo, I'm not sure if you have seen this piece or not, but I thought you and Professor Succo might enjoy it. The more I read the less I feel I truly understand what is going on at a macro level. But that is why I'm hanging out at Minyanville. Sorry your New York teams didn't make it to the World Series, but thanks for allowing us Detroiters to enjoy some good times. Things are pretty tough around the area, so it's nice to have something positive to grab on to for a week or so. All the best, Minyan David"

  • A penny saved is 854,930,170,256,788 pennies earned!

  • Chatter continues to swirl regarding the overnight action in the futures. I don't have any insight regarding why they traded as they did but I'm in the "squaring and paring" camp before the "grand conspiracy" camp. And no, I've never been to Band Camp.

  • Speaking of conspiracy, exactly what WAS that substance on Kenny Roger's roasted chicken stuffer?

  • If you're getting bullish on upticks and bearish on downticks, take a deep breath and a step back. The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.

  • "Take a look at this chart of the SP, ND and Russell futures from yesterday afternoon and note the cross-market spike at 6:25 p.m. Is that a misprint? Nope. According to Globex all trades stand. Causes for the move run the gamut of pure speculation - from what began as a fat-fingered trade - though all markets moved (SP, ND, RL), to something post-options expiration related to pure capitulation. The important part, however, is not the reason it occurred but that the trades stand and the chart is correct." Pepe Depew on this morning's Buzz.

  • I'm not sure what's most disturbing about this--the fact that it was a pit bull, the fact he was a father or the fact that the wife took pictures!

  • "Best quarters (in the banking complex) were at WFC, RF and surprising CMA. Worst quarters were at ASO, BBT, FHN, STI, WB, USB. The big three (JPM, BAC, C) were all neutrals (some monkey business, but also, especially in C's case, some signs that the strategic moves they are making are starting to pay off)." Steve Zausner, on behalf of John Succo (positions in all stocks mentioned)

  • What the heck were you thinking, Mr. Hand?

  • The fly in this upside try? The dollar, which is up 60 bips and threatening the 5-year trendline again. That's not a here and now "drop everything" tell but it's something to put in your pipe as we search through the smoke

  • "According to the excellent Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers, their sentiment indicator also reached 'extreme optimism.' This is in addition to our proprietary poll that hit nosebleed levels on Friday. And the hedgers. And AAII info. And the divergences. Minyans, the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to fit together. We shall watch and listen to Mr. Market. I would also note a daily MACD crossing on the SPX cash today." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Andrew McCarthy attempts to juggle his post-brat pack existence.


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Position in financials, metals, energy, JPM
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