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A Shawshank Tape


Andy Dufresne (who climbed through a river of muck to get here) just walked up to me and said "I find I'm so excited, Toddo, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement that only a bullish man can feel, a bullish man at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can make it across the trough. I hope I can see my friend Hoofy and shake his...hoof. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope."

Hey convict, hope is a good thing--maybe even the best of things--and no good thing ever dies. Hope, however, has no placing in the trading process. I know the long side has been a tenuous journey, but the most important element of our success is timing. I can't tell you that there's not going to be a bigger trade to the upside-that's for you to decide. What I can do is offer you my thought that the market came too far too fast and it needs to consolidate. That's not advice, minded...I'm just trying to help a brother out.

It seems that our good friend Red is having himself a battle today as the futures players continue to pick away on the buyside. I certainly see what Andy is excited about...after the jailbreak we've seen, this is action is (thus far) constructive. I am a big believer that discipline is more important than conviction, so I don't want to send the wrong message to the other inmates. As a trader, the onus will always fall squarely on our own shoulders to make sound decisions. We can always augment the parameters of our trades, but we should never get emotional or stubborn. Do that, and Captain Hadley will knock us silly.

I told Boo that he'd better get busy livin' or get busy packin', and he looked over at me with a mouth full of chow and winked. Maybe he's looking at the stochastics (OSX, DRG have confirmed the sell signal, BKX and XBD are thisclose, the rest are very close), or perhaps he's monitoring the breadth (2:1 negative). Either way, I made it very clear to him that he's a trader and not an investor, and he needs to serve his sentence one day at a time.

Hope this finds you with some sunshine on your shoulders.

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