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Random Thoughts


Are you ready for some footbal!?

  • There's hope for me yet!

  • And for President Fish as well...

  • "Some very interesting aspects of future relative performance can be seen during significant equity market corrections and the recent month could certainly be considered enough of a correction to warrant seeing how each sector did relative to the S&P 500. We looked at a 2-year graph of each sector as measured against the S&P 500 (SPX) to see how the relative performance was. Clearly, the Energy and Utility leadership is being called into question, while those exposed to capital expenditures related areas (Financials, Info Tech and Industrials) have experienced solid relative performance during the recent market correction. The Consumer related sectors are looking "bouncy," Health Care is near a relative strength breakout and, Communications and Materials are limited to potential relative performance "dead cat" bounces." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • Hamzei Analytics chat room line-up is snazzy and jazzy. Good stuff Fari~

  • Barbarians at the Gates?

  • Vibes from uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder:

    Strong like bull...

    -Inflation scare is temporary...China is exporting deflation.
    -Plenty of oil out there...temporary disruption in supply exacerbated by hedge fund buying, Katrina and Rita.
    -Soft economic numbers merely reflect a "pause" in growth and do not imply that the economy has peaked.
    -Commodity is "cyclical" and "absorbable"
    -2005 is just like 1994
    -Fed nearly done'll have your year end rally--tech will lead.

    How bout them Bears...

    -NYSE breadth deteriorating...more stocks declining than advancing. Confidence too short.
    -New highs lows not advanced enough
    -Major indexes all into resistance...Dow the weakest, beneath its downward sloping 50 and 200-day MA. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallying, however, it's still low and reflects complacency.
    -Dow at top of its range... In '03 many said market would work to the top but rarely identified that to say that 10,500 - 11,000 is the top.
    -A review and comparison of three prior trading range periods (1900 - 1919; 1928 - 1953; 1965 - 1982) and their 19 cyclical bull markets with current cycle says the current cycle is geriatric, infirm and ending. Review shows 19 cyclical bull markets were followed by 19 downturns.

  • Smoke Signals.

  • The big picture technicals remain the same. Hoofy is leaning against NDX 1550ish and Boo is fading into S&P 1200. If either of these levels fail, the reactive types will likely pile on.

  • S&P 1168 remains an equally important level to watch.

  • Why does this remind me of Roy Munson?

  • And, for that matter, 'Morrie' Kessler?

  • Is this the "basing" in the metals before another leg higher? Me thinks so, although, if they spill I'll view it as an opportunity to add further exposure.

  • Stephen Roach takes aim.

  • A large "risk reversal" (bearish option bet) was slapped on yesterday as a gorilla bought June 1100 puts and sold the June 1300 calls to finance 'em. This created a slew of supply that started the negative gamma domino effect. I'm told that half of this trade was unwound into yesterday's close. Cha-ching!

  • As Chicago Minyans pile into my inbox with "centuries of angst," I'm stickin' with the 'Stros to take the 2005 crown.

  • A scholarly approach to credit derivatives.

  • Professor Succo and I will be holding court at Northern Kentucky University (near Cinci) on Monday, November 7th. All area Minyans are welcome to attend.

  • Hedge fund hot potato.

  • "We don't perceive that there is a national [housing] bubble but it's hard not to see . . . that there are a lot of local bubbles." - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (Economic Club of New York, May 20, 2005; CNNMoney)

  • Then again...

  • Weekly options?

  • Minyanville Classics: Memoirs from the Butte.

  • Fare ye well into the expiration bell, Minyans, and have a fantastic weekend with your clan. We look forward to seeing ye faithful at the NYC Minyanfest this Sunday. Let us know if you need details on the when, where, how and why...

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