Spooky Answers I'd Really Like to Know?
Hit 'em hard Minyans!
Is Google's upside shocker necessarily bullish?
If Google had a float similar to other net stocks (and split 10-for-1), it would be a $30 stock reporting EPS of .151 (vs. .136 consensus) and up over $3 after hours. Even so, and given the extra zero, is this really the type of market leader that Hoofy wants to hand the baton to?
Yes, the net (along with satellite radio) are the growth leaders in next gen media (as books, television and radio-aka traditional media-assume supportive roles). And yes, Google is in a unique position to help...Google. But with investor's starved for upside excitement (note the $445 price target at Piper), I can't help but feel a sense of duja ve as we watch the Chevy Chase. Fear not, Fletch, the lock-up stock should get here soon enough.
Is an alarm that nobody heeds still an alarm?
Bob Prechter of Elliot Wave recently forecasted a market crash and was immediately met with cat calls from the cheap seats. I'm well aware of Mr. Prechter's track record (both ways) and generally believe that, throughout financial "media," loud calls typically lead to tepid results.
Still, the absolute nature of the nay-sayers-across the board and without exception-stands out. Particularly since we've triggered the DJIA 10,300 level he has been focused on. There is no hocus pocus in the markets, Minyans, but you always wanna see both sides of any trade. And now you do.
Why were the markets so whacky this week?
A combination of earnings, technical levels and, most importantly, expiration action (which typically occurs in the sessions before the actual expiry). The bipolar bender was in effect as we tetherballed back and forth between NDX 1550 and S&P 1200. And, as repeatedly noted in the 'Ville, there was an mechanical "pull" to S&P 1180, 1175, 1170 and 1165 in the last few days (as evidenced by the five handle hopscotch late yesterday).
This introduces the potential that some of yesterday's drag was artificial (and subsequently alleviated, as index options settle on the today's open). Keep in mind that individual equities will still be drawn to potential pins (strikes with outsized open interest relative to average daily volume) as we edge to the final bell of the week.
Is the rotation station here to stay? It's likely, in the context of evolutionary market leadership. I've made some good calls in my career (Spring 2000) and stumbled through my fair share of missteps (2003). But perhaps the most lucid thought I've had in years is the role reversal that is slowly migrating into the mindset of the masses.
Tech and financials, while prone to produce inspiring bounces, are over-owned and, in the case of the banks, fraught with all kinds of structural risk. Energy and metals, on the other hand, were the shy kids in the corner a year ago and have begun to run with self-esteem. As they mature-and as investors "see" the relative return-I sense that they're gonna make mama pretty proud.
Haven't we seen this movie before?
I often ask myself how we can improve the Minyanville experience and take steps towards building a fiscal fitness franchise. When I started the 'Ville, it was with a conscious mandate that education will ultimately trump outright advice. That teaching folks how to make better and more informed decisions would have a longer shelf-life than trying to tell them what to do. There have been natural barriers to this approach-alotta folks wanna be told what to do and transition the decision making risk to others.
I saw some self-proclaimed pundits bury-and I mean bury-a lot of people as the bubble was about to burst in 2000. And I'm seeing some of those same people rant and rave their way back into the spotlight. I have no ill will-that's not really my style-I'm just genuinely concerned that alotta folks will get burned. Again.
Is there anything more important than family and friends?
It's been a hectic week for yours truly and I officially entered a personal fast market late yesterday. Contrary to popular opinion, I have a pretty decent temper and I managed to misplace it as I juggled the struggle after the bell. President Fish-my best pal since we counted the hairs on his chin-soothed the savage beast with some proper perspective. Winnie, the object of my affection, then steadied my mood as she's been known to do. And finally, while at dinner with my gorgeous grandmother-in town with my mother and brother to celebrate her 85th-the frazzle unraveled as we laughed, loved and remembered Ruby in all his glory.
Have a good day, Minyans, and remember that the Critter Nation will be hosting a NYC Minyanfest this Sunday at 4:00 PM. We hope to see you there for a little feast and a host of handshakes!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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