What, me worry?
Good morning and welcome back to the soft sell crabs. Yesterday's drift closed with a lift as the bulls gave some love and Boo went home miffed. The bears had the banks in the path of their tanks but, when push came to shove, they were shooting with blanks. Can the ursine bounce back and mount an attack or is Hoofy too strong for this tape to soon crack? It's a brand new day on the minxy field so let's crank it up and see what's revealed.
Monday's late Snapper caught a few bears napping and recaptured almost half of Friday's funk. There really wasn't any dynamic news to speak of and that, in and of itself, may have been a culprit. One of the oldest adages on the Street is to never short a dull tape. As anybody who was at their turret can attest, yesterday was as sharp as a marble.
The action picked up after the close as a handful of semis chose to expose. "It's more of the same numbers game," groaned Boo as he sat through the Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) conference call, "most companies are hurdling a low bar but they're far from cheap." He's got a point, I suppose, but to hear Hoofy tell it, there are few worries among the bountiful bovine. "Wall Street has also traded on perception (rather than reality)," he began, "and right now the collective view is that the Minx is cooking with oil".
So what derails the upside quest and ushers in the needed test? A few schools of thought remain in class but listen 'cause they're fading fast. Most have tired of hearing why (or how) this market could fail and that, in and of itself, is worthy of a nose scrunch. "The complacency (VXO 18) and pending resistance (S&P 1050-1060) are probably the two most tangible metrics," offers Sammy as he peers over his glasses, "but the bulls are brazen and their will is amazing."
Indeed, over the past few months, Hoofy has thumbed his nose at record insider sales, layered resistance levels, fire hazard bull crowds, geopolitical uncertainty and, when there was (gasp) bad news, he simply swallowed, burped and continued to chow down (or, in this case, up). How are we supposed to know when he's gonna blow?
Much like the minxy musical chairs that was played through the first bubble, the same mindset is currently making the rounds. "Oh, we'll know when it's time to ring the register," said Snapper as he sips on his double cafe latte, "the writing will be on the wall." "I certainly hope so," replied Boo, "because when the music stops and the market drops, there aren't gonna be enough chairs to go around."
Hoofy didn't blink as he finished thumbing through the morning news and that fact wasn't lost on the rest of the menagerie. He hasn't been touched in months and he knew that his muscle (Elmer and Dubya) had his back should he need it. Boo, arms folded and a discerning look on his face, slowly walked to my side and said under his breath "Just remember, Toddo, the bigger they are, the harder they fall."
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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