At any given point of time, there will be a bull and bear argument for why a stock (index) should be higher (lower). I just opined to our humbled bear that eight short sessions ago, when the Dow was over 1300 points lower, there was ample reason to be short and few reasons to be long. Now, after a most spirited sprint, the same traders who were pressing their shorts (then) are now chasing long exposure. I see the psychological sea change that's occurred and I am quite aware of the structural shift (asset allocation), but our ability to identify a disconnect between perception and reality will ultimately define our fortunes.
The tricky aspect to this particular juncture is just how far along the asset allocation process is. The lift that we've seen is clearly more than just the allocators, but the underlying bid by the pension funds has created a chain reaction of sorts and pulled money into the market. Long squeeze, performance anxiety, fear of missing...call it what you will, but it implies the same thing: a self fulfilling rally that will last...until it doesn't. At that point, the ability of the tape to make a higher low will define the Minx.
The earnings parade continues after the close and despite my love of trading and an affinity for conference calls, I'm going to leave these in the capable hands of my partners. Today was a battle-in more ways than one-but as Carole would say, my health is most important. Apologies if I dropped the ball a bit today. I see it, and I'll make it up to you.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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