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My Aching Bear!

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You say you'll give me eyes in a moon of blindness
A river in a time of dryness, a harbor in the tempest
But al the promises we make, from the cradle to the grave
When all I want is Boo


(U2)

So here I am, sipping tea at my turret with a fuzzy little bear next to me...when all of a sudden, out of nowhere, I hear my name being called from the conference room. Naturally, feeling as drekky as I do, I ignored the noise with the hopes that it went away. After all, I have plenty on my plate right now and the last thing I have patience for is metaphorical imagery. Still, when the pleas didn't stop, I left Boo at my post and investigated the noise. To my surprise, I walked into the room to find a table full of critters.

Hoofy spoke up "Toddo, we know you're fighting off the flu, but don't make any emotional decisions. Why would invite Boo to sit next to you? Are you chugging Nyquil?" I coughed once, cleared my throat and replied "Fellas, I see what you're seeing and agree that there is a rising tide. Still, as a trader, I'm constantly scanning for short term opportunities and my sense is that the allocation trade is creating a long squeeze. In other words, performance anxiety is pulling cash into the market as a function of price."

Sammy slithered over, handed me a Kleenex and asked "Why is that bearish?" I replied "That, in and of itself, is not bearish Sam. What I sense could be bearish is that traders are buying stocks 'cause they're going higher. What happens when the market stops acting so well? What's their catalyst then? Couple that with the fact that the tape is extended and the stochastics are edging towards sell signals, it raises a red flag in my eyes. I am not unleashing the hounds, mind you, but some ducks are lining up. Keep an eye on those bonds...they hold the key."

Snapper piped in (with a smile) "Are you sure you're not overreacting 'cause your Raiders got smoked on national television yesterday?" I shot the turtle an evil eye and responded "Listen, I understand you guys all stoked at the prospect of a year end rally and, trust me, I see what's going on in the market. Still, our journey is made up of many steps and my intent is to take 'em one at a time. Do you remember that itch we had a couple of Wednesday's ago? The tape was oversold, sentiment was abysmal and there was nary a reason to buy? Today feels like the polar opposite of that session...and I'm getting the itch the other way."

The critters slowly nodded their head as I got up and readied myself for the rest of the session. They've known me for a long time and understood that I tend to get cranky when I'm sick. However, they also knew that this is the big leagues and in the bigs...you play in pain. With that, I walked back to my desk to find Boo up to his ears in sell tickets. I settled into my chair, strapped myself in, and began to pick up the trading lights. There was, after all, only an hour or so left until I could stamp the time clock and climb back into bed.





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