I've always been a big believer that you should never trade off of a catalyst that you can't see. Surely, this morning, the bond market meltage was the sign that equities had some upside schnitzel to 'em. I will continue to monitor that complex for signs of traction, but in the meantime, I've told Boo to start sniffing around for some downside exposure. We've had a heckuva move off the lows and, from my perch, not much changed outside of sentiment. Granted, that's a powerful metric, but it's getting a bit frothy for my liking. Remember, we must respect the price action but we must never defer to it.
Understand, my horizon and risk profile is unique and I'm a much more aggressive trader than most. I just wanted to pass along my thought process with hopes that it adds value to your own. As it stands, I'm witnessing a mad dash for exposure and that's typically been problematic for the tape. In addition, I'm starting to see bearish flow from the pits. For instance, that Rambo trader from Friday just walked in and puked his 90,000 QQQ puts. That's capitulation on the short side.
Not always right, but always honest. Hope you're all making a few shekels today. Gotta hop.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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