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Random Thoughts


Keep an eye out for pins, Mr. Munson, in issues with an out-sized open-interest relative to average daily volume.

  • The key to the sea? The Dollar, perhaps, as it continues to flirt with the five-year trendline and the 200-day moving average. Fail, and the asset class dance might start to prance. Rally, and it'll likely quell further swell.

  • With index expiration in the rear-view, the last of the Mohicans is individual stocks into the close. Keep an eye out for pins, Mr. Munson, in issues with an out-sized open-interest relative to average daily volume.

  • My boy Blue--ok, my boy Darol (and his other brother Darol at JP Morgan) inform me that, with 144 companies having reported in the S&P, we're running at $22.10 (vs. consensus $21.49). That's up 18% year over year.

  • That seems snazzy on the surface. Two potential caveats to note. First, the market, as a leading indicator, has likely baked some of that into the cake. Second, multiple compression, if it comes to pass, will create a "value trap" for the fundy crowd.

  • Alright, I admit it. While Yankee blood runs through my veins (old school, not the current "paid to play" model), I was a table pounding Met fan last night. Congrats to the Cards and good luck to the Tigers.

  • We don't "do" rumors in the 'Ville but we wanted to note the curious action in Phelps Dodge (+2%) in the face of smelty metals. There has been chatter of a deal floating around the Street and, well, it's Friday. Rumortrage? We suppose it was only a matter of time.

  • Tea leaves check! Breadth? Bunk. Banks...inconclusive. Tech? The reaction to the Google news has to be chalked up as a Debbie Downer thus far. Technical levels? BKX 114 is back overhead but we've got some room to swoon in the broader averages before the sirens sound.

  • Respected Prudential bank analyst Michael Mayo downgraded the large cap bank sector this morning (from neutral to unfavorable). The firm expects banks to underperform the market, citing lower margins, a decline in core deposits, a mix shift to more expensive funding, inverted yield curve pressure, softening mortgage and consumer loan growth as factors.

  • The DOW has a string of 10 consecutive higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. This is extremely rare. Since 1930, I could find just four prior occurrences. March 1998, June 1954, September 1951, and March 1943. The streak ended with lower lows the following week in 3 of the 4. The streak continued for one more week in Sep 1951." Professor Jason Roney on this morning's Buzz.

  • The dead cat trounce? Caterpillar is off 11%, or 60 handles in the DJIA.

  • Why does STYX rub so many folks the wrong way? Why does rub rub so many folks the wrong way? Why the heck am I thinking about this?

  • I did a little stealth site visit last night at Country, home of the MIM-CCA. I set a pretty high bar--for myself and the 'Ville--and suffice to say that I've been blown away by this venue. There's a reason that Esquire recently named it one of "The Best New Restaurants in the Country for 2006." That, coupled with the human capital slated to attend and the mission of helping children, has set the stage for a fantastic Festivus! We've secured some hotel options for out-of-town Minyans and, as anyone who has attended a Minyanville Event can attest, we aim to blow the doors off the whisper number. Space is limited but the smiles are not---join us, and let's ring in '07 on a seriously stellar note.

  • Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and have a mindful respite. You've surely earned it.


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