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Dark Side of the Moon


Well, what do you say after a session like that? It was fun while it lasted? When it rains it pours? Mama said there would be days like this? The sun was in my eyes? The dog ate my homework? Elvis has left the building? I should have been a vet? MY MINYANS HAVE MINYANS?!?

Relax, Francois, it could have been worse!

Hoofy would argue that this push and pull is a natural function of a bottoming process and, as long as we hold the previous lows, this action is simply shaking out the weak holders. Notice I said "A" bottom rather than "THE" bottom as it's a subtle but important point. In this column, we focus on trading moves---not cycle turns. While my (humble) big picture belief is that we're still in the early innings of the bear (don't shoot the messenger), there will certainly be periods when we can profit on the long side. Bear markets are littered with false hope and empty promises. Mark my the months and years ahead, there will be bullish phases where the collective psychology believes the worst has passed and the upturn has begun. That's bullish for the period that money managers put money to work (perception is reality), but ultimately, it will only create supply for the downturn that follows. Of course, I could be wrong and, for all of our sakes, I hope I am.

Before we get ahead of ourselves (sorry), let's remember that it'll be the journey-not the ultimate destination---that determines our profitability. Today was but a day, and while it surely dings for those who got caught the wrong way, tomorrow is a fresh chance at redemption. After hours, BK (Bank of NY) and AMD (Advanced Micro) released negative news, so those are two names to put on our watch list for tomorrow. As traders, we always like to watch how stocks respond to bad news, as the ability to absorb selling pressure is a good sign that the negativity is priced in. Again, as I said yesterday, my trading antennas sense that there is a stiff rally in the cards before year end-but I continue to "feel" it will begin from lower levels. Just one trader's (honest) opinion.

But enough with the stock talk, it's been a long day and it's time to power down and focus on the important stuff. Before I leave, though, I want to share with you something Mohammed Ali said at a U.C.P charity event I attended a few years back. And I quote "Today I am 59, next year I'll be 60. Yesterday I was 22. Don't wake up at 60 and wish you had today to do over again." Truer words have never been spoken. Don't waste this time thinking about your day. Focus on the here and now...tomorrow is right around the corner.

Have a peaceful night.


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