Mad Cow Disease!
Holy cow! Once again, Daisy was spot on with her assessment. There is no excuse for excluding the female contingent from our best performer contest and, certainly, this was no time to let our guard down. The fate of the tape is still very much up in the air and there was plenty of time left in the day. She agreed to give me my lunch back if I walked the readers through the current juncture. I told her that, as always, I would do my best.
We've spoken about the technicals all day and I continue to feel that this is an important area for the market. The BKX, S&P and NDX are all flirting with breakouts-but they're not there yet and you can't anticipate this metric. Further, my trusty stochastics are edging towards sell signals which, when coupled with overbought conditions into resistance, gives you a potential triple whammy on the technical front. We're not there yet, mind you, and nothing is for certain in this tape...but this is clearly on my radar and I wanted to make sure it's on yours as well.
Fundamentally, we've got the first week of earnings and, by and large, we're being told that there's no discernable pickup and limited visibility. It is worth noting that the "big boys" are stretching their legs and outperforming their weaker cousins, but net/net I am not certain we've seen this metric "turn the corner." Next week we'll get the second leg of our earnings parade, and hopefully we'll get some further clarity...either way.
The prevalent psychology has clearly morphed from the "fear of losing" to the "fear of missing," and while that can be self fulfilling, it can also exhaust itself. We've seen a lot of new money come into the market in the last couple of weeks and, if this period has taught us anything, it's that the buyers are higher and the sellers are lower. This phenomenon can be perceived as bearish, but it "could" also create a firm bid below the market. My point is that perception is reality in our business and we should always keep our finger on the pulse of perception. Doctor!
This boy (me) is admittedly running out of steam, so please work with me as we tick tock towards the closing bell. I can't remember a week filled with more gaps, more news or more food! I can tell you one thing, I'm looking forward to a quiet, restful night and some Sunday football with my friends at the Q-Lounge. Maybe in between I can go to this place they call "gym" and work off some of these Brent & Sams!
Deep breaths...we're getting there.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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