The Buck Stops Here
Everybody loves a winner!
"I don't think I want to know a six-year-old who isn't a dreamer, or a silly heart. And I sure don't want to know one who takes their student career seriously. I don't have a college degree. I don't even have a job. But I know a good kid when I see one. Because they're ALL good kids!"
--Buck Russell, Uncle Buck
The single best part about being a sports fan? In the heat of the moment, you can jump around, dance, scream, yell, hug strangers and act like a little kid again. It's amazing, really, to see grown men and women in a state of absolute giddiness without a care in the world. Call it one of life's simple pleasures but in a world of terror, stress and complications, you've gotta appreciate the little stuff. Otherwise, what's the point?
Speaking of giddy crowds dancing deliriously, the bulls have enjoyed a relative dynasty this past year. What remains to be seen, however, is how many bandwagon fans are along for the ride. As with sports, people gravitate towards winners and Hoofy has been in a groove. If he starts hitting the skids, a differentiation will emerge between the true blue loyalists and the "next best thing" types.
Are we there yet? It's tough to tell, for sure, as the only way to know if one's in a slump is if they stop hitting (read: lower prices). Earnings have had a little something for everyone and both camps will point to inputs to support their team. That'll continue (in earnest) next week and we'll balance those inputs with the technicals (still bumping up against resistance while overbought), structural (motivated upside agenda) and, of course, the manic psychology (that will self-fulfill until it "pops").
Toss another input onto your trading radar as well. The Fed Fund futures are pricing in an 80% chance that the target (rate) will move 25 basis points higher by April. In and of itself, that's a minimal move. However, if the perception of a wider rate backdrop begins to gain traction, it could ripple and roil the bubble trouble (debt, derivatives, psychology). I know Brian has a different take on this so I'm looking forward to hearing his shpiel. Be gentle on me, big guy--I didn't leave Pedro in there!
As far as today's action, the Minx keeps hugging our first support levels (S&P 1040/NDX 1400) as we edge into the afternoon muck. While the breadth is pretty stank and the leadership sectors are pointing lower, most traders I speak to are still Snapperphobic. Also, there's some "terror" chatter making the rounds today (first time in a while) and although I'm not sure what to make of that (a broach, a pterodactyl). I wanted to pass it along. Freaky Friday indeed.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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