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Random Thoughts

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If you're staring at one stock all session, chances are you're too big in the name.

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  • "So, maybe portfolios ought to be stress tested both for a hard landing and no immediate landing." Minyan Michael Santoli, discussing the financial outlook in his always excellent Barron's missive.

  • I, for one, am looking for clarity. And I, for deux, think we'll find some on December 1st. I mean, if we can't shake some actionable ideas in the afternoon, we can most certainly have fun looking for 'em at night. A Festivus for the rest of us? You betcha!

  • We continue to hear angst in the ranks from underinvested portfolio managers. I told them that I want to pull out my bear costume (with defined risk slightly above S&P 1365) but breadth, as it stands, is simply too snazzy to do so.

  • Can that change? On a dime. Just make sure it doesn't change on your dime.

  • "I view Mattel's (MAT) earnings beat and 5% stock rally as a classic "Good News/ Bad News" conundrum. On the happy side of the ledger, it's nice to see the consumer stepping up to buy the classics like Seizure Elmo and Anatomically-Impossible Barbie. Mattel is better than they were, operationally, but toys remain on the bloody edge of economic slow-downs; if MAT is beating estimates and saying good things about Christmas, I don't want to be shorting the consumer just yet." Television's JeffMacke on today's Buzz.

  • I pared some longs in energy (Weatherford) and metals into the quick morning pop. I've yet to touch Golden Star (GSS), which remains a 'core long' for now.

  • The laggy banks (Wachovia is off 3%) also support further slippage, particularly if BKX 114 morphs back into a ceiling.

  • Note to self: Do not wear a Yankee hat to Shea Stadium. Particularly when they lose.

  • We've recently seen big buyers of calls in Phelps Dodge (LBO chatter), Broadcom (ahead of earnings) and Yahoo! (takeover speculation--no, really!).

  • If you're staring at one stock all session, chances are you're too big in the name. Balance, mon frere, brings good things to life.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "I just wanted to share that I made the worst bet of my life. I bet $50 in Vegas in August on the over 6 1/2 wins for season wins for the Raiders. When they are on their game they are one of the most exciting teams in the NFL. Just goes to show that one needs to remove emotion when investing. At this point, however, like a declining stock, should we cut our losses and move on to another team? Tell me no." Minyan Ron

    MR- I've always said that bad seasons define good fans. As such, the Raider Nation must be the best fans in the NFL. It is a sorry state of affairs for our once proud franchise--no chemistry, no teamwork, no excuses. We had our shot--three seasons with a legitimate chance--but lost to the Patriots, Ravens and Bucs in kind. Heck, I was sitting next to Tom Brady Saturday night and I had to stop myself from telling him to go "tuck" himself. I didn't, of course, and chose instead to give Bridget the benefit of my attention.
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position in gss, financials
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