Freaky Friday Random Thoughts
By Todd Harrison Oct 14, 2005 8:39 am
The semis help but the financials hold the key.
- Top tick?
- The Minx tried to rally the troops yesterday but the effort felt a bit obligatory. As it stands, and despite a bit of a pretzel twist, Boo still has the ball with defined risk resistance (S&P 1180/1200, NDX 1550ish) resting above.
- There's been alotta chatter regarding Refco and the potential for some sorta contagion. I'll offer that while it's a low probability affair from a statistical standpoint, the interwoven financial fabric (connected by a maze of derivatives) provides fertile ground for unleashed hounds.
- Along those lines, please note that Duke & Duke started to puke after the brokers broke a) the trendline from the May low (XBD 175ish) and b) acne support (XBD 173). They managed to hold the August double bottom (XBD 166) on a closing basis and that's the nearest technical inflection point as we ready for today's trade. I continue to believe that this complex (and the financials in general) encapsulates many of the concerns floating around the marketplace.
- Speaking of banks, add General Electric as a tape tell today on the heels of their earnings.
- Oil Spoil?
- Higher gold with a higher greenback?
- The semis, fresh off a ten percent haircut in seven sessions, bounced directly on the 200-day at SOX 533. Made sense (first test, big level, short-term oversold) but that, in hindsight, may have been the "easy" trade.
- Yesterday, during services in my synagogue, the Rabbi discussed the importance of "Minyans" in the religious realm and the necessity of surrounding ourselves with a community of trusted peers. He then segued into the "age of the internet" and the commonalities therein as I sat back and pondered the serendipity of his sermon.
- Yield curve FAQ's.
- Runs for the Roses?
- Unrehearsed war psychology.
- "Prof. Geneva Overholser of the University of Missouri, a former reporter and editor and now a commentator on the journalism scene, predicts that newspapers will survive but that 'most news is going to be online, and the newspaper will survive as an auxiliary to that.'"
- "The S&P 500's price action continues to worry us that health of the bull market is deteriorating. Side-by-side Sequential sell signals in the December futures, coupled with the 1244 level holding since we first identified it in early August, still makes us think that lasting gains will be tough to come by." Rick Bensignor, "The Patient is Ill," Morgan Stanley Equity Research, October 12, 2005.
- Please keep next Sunday (October 23rd) on ye radar as we're gathering in NYC for a little football feastage. While the 4:00 pm gathering will be all about views and brews, we're toying with the idea of having some Minyan flag football first. Any interest from ye faithful?
- Shocker, Lattimer!
- I tossed a "one off" vibe on the Buzz Wednesday offering that while the 'Ville "isn't a political forum, I would be remiss if I didn't express concern regarding the direction of the Supreme Court." As that seemingly innocuous thought spurred a slew of responses, lemme quickly clarify. I'm a moderate type of guy who believes that our high court should be balanced and sans the legacy of any particular administration.
- "Earlier this week we outlined how it was likely too late to sell and a bit too early to buy. We no longer believe this to be true, especially given our fundamental market thesis remains in place. While it would be silly to attempt calling the exact low, there are some clear signs the selling has become excessive (even if it continues for another day or two). The risk appears limited and stocks are due for a more meaningful advance over coming months." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities.
- Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and let's end this week with some shekels in our sheets!
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