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Duck Season!


I've got two ceilings over my head--S&P 1120 and NDX 1440.


It's nuttier than Austin Powers coffee as we field the fungo that is earnings season. As the critters are up to their eyeballs, they asked if we could share this morning's column in Random format. I have a thing against slackers but, as I know they've been bustin' their hump, I acquiesced and cut them some slack.

Thus, without further ado, here are some morning thoughts:

  • Is it me or does anyone else get the sense that we're gonna see another contested election? Between the uber-tight race, overseas ballots and electronic voting systems, there seems to be plenty of reasons for a 2000 redeux.

  • No stopper, Copper!

  • Sandisk (SNDK:NASD), Novellus (NVLS:NASD) reported nightmare quarters. Watch these names (and the semicaps) for signs of shruggage. The SOX, if it can push through $400 again, technically has room to SOX 435.

  • I know better than to count out the Red Sox but man, there aren't many feelings better than watching the Yankees put the hurt on.

  • Why is it that when I think of the Minx, I picture a camel with a straw saddle? Oil, electoral uncertainty, fundamental slowdown, base (metal) jumping, technical breaks (through double 200-days)...

  • I'm fairly sure that 12,000 General Motor (GM:NYSE) workers have zero percent patience right now. Also note that the auto giant cut 2004 EPS forecast to $6.00-$6.50 vs. estimates of $7.05.

  • All-star guitar signee Bill Gross, with a little help from Paul Simon, lobs the ball back at the Fed.

  • Silver sports a 2.5% gain in early morning trade as it runs back to kiss the all-important $7 level. The smack down in the base metals planted all kinds of slowdown seeds yesterday. We'll need to keep an eye on the metal complex as we drift through the stagflation vs. deflation debate. The former would bode well for the group while the latter will spur an asset class morass. What will tip the scale either way? Elmer's heavy hand.

  • 2+2=5! Mea culpa on not connecting the dots yesterday after I heard that FASB would roll back the timeline on option expensing. That likely contributed to the bid in the nets and semis (two sectors flush with employee stock options).

  • The financials are an obvious focus today on the heels of Bank of America (BAC:NYSE), Citigroup (C:NYSE) and Aunt Fannie (FNM:NYSE). BKX 97.70-75 is where the 50- and 200-day support live while BKX 100 is where the piggies have repeatedly failed.

  • Manzierre!

  • If you're an active Minyan and want to read about the Minx as it happens, the Buzz is the place you wanna hang. There is a desktop application that is pretty snazzy and it'll keep you company (and keep you up) throughout the trading session.

  • If you had to describe the 'Ville in two sentences, how would you do it? Thanks!

  • We saw a pronounced N's over S's dichotomy yesterday as money rotated away from the economically sensitive world and into the new world.

  • Yes, our trade deficit is $54,000,000,000. That's a big nut.

  • We're absolutely jammed with earnings this morning--please lemme hop and I'll circle back in a bit. Have a fantastic day and remember to play like a Yankee today!

Position in c, fnm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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