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Trading from Vienna


Slow down you crazy child
You're so ambitious for a juvenile
But then if you're so smart tell me
Why are you still so afraid?

(Billy Joel)

Holy cow, I think White Castle has stolen my mojo! I mean...what's the World record for mini-burgers consumed in one sitting, anyway? Could my gluttony be a function of the Raider loss? Was it angst associated with the pending earnings parade? Could I be rebelling against my imminent quadruple wisdom yank? Whatever it was, I'm paying the price now! For those of you who've sat down with a tray full of sliders, you can surely relate to how I'm feeling. What was I thinking?!?

The great tape debate continues to wage as we tick tock towards the afternoon session. Don't kid yourself, this is a dicey juncture for the Minx and for the most part, guys I speak with are spun around. I certainly see what the bulls are pointing to...the financials continue to act dry, the biotechs have been well bid all day and the market seems to shrug off bad news. As traders, we must appreciate what the tape is "telling" us---but I've always believed that while we must appreciate the price action, we should never defer to it. There are a ton of earnings due out before the opening bell tomorrow and the posturing will be fierce into the closing bell. If you find yourself toin cossing, do a little less until you identify that elusive edge.

As we walk through Minyanville, I trust you'll become more familiar with our style and intent. This product was birthed as an educational vehicle and you'll never find me telling you what to do or how to act. That said (again), I will always offer you my true read of the tape. It will be right sometimes and it will be wrong sometimes...but it will always be honest and with the best of intentions. You are ultimately the one who looks in the mirror (or in the eyes of your family), so you must make decisions consistent with your means and your particular situation. I know this has been a difficult couple of years, my friends, but it's not going to get any easier. All we can do is adapt, make intelligent choices and not attempt to make it all back with one trade.

We're starting to see some early afternoon slippage and I continue to have the "scrunched up forehead" thing going as we wade towards earnings. It's not that we "can't" rally-we can certainly lift if we get some upside validation in the days ahead----I just "sense" that it's a bit cute that we put in THE low right at S&P 775 and VIX 50. Again, this could be a self-fulfilling prophecy as the "reason to the rhyme" crowd looks back and the "numbers got too low" crowd looks forward. Where do I stand? I still sense that there's a stronger rally before the year ends but I remain unconvinced that it's already begun. As such, I'm approaching this week with a tight risk profile and plenty of powder both ways.

On our guitar front, Jimi is running away with the top prize while Stevie Ray and Clapton battle it out for second. It's hard to argue with these results, although our good friend Neil Glassman seems to think Donny Osmond belongs in the top three. Hey Neil....get out of the seventies man, you're showing your age!

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