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Random Thoughts


Breath Mints!


  • As the world spurns...

  • Stay on the lookout for towel tossing--in addition to the potential breakdown (S&P 1120) and failure (NDX 1440) of our mainstay levels, this reversal would serve as a textbook bull trap.

  • Make love, not war.

  • The NYSE breadth was THE tell this morning (opened flattish while everyone was gigglin').

  • I've become a nut aficionado of sorts during this weight debate. Nuts and cheese. I feel like a big mouse--do you think that's some sort of allergy?

  • N's over S's big time today. When I see that dichotomy, I always like to look for longs in the former and shorts in the latter (although either--or neither--may work).

  • It's got a cop motor, a 440 cubic inch plant, it's got cop tires, cop suspensions, cop shocks. It's a model made before catalytic converters so it'll run good on regular gas. What do you say, is it the new Bluesmobile or what?

  • Hoofy (and Tommy Carden) are quick to point out the dry eyes in the semi space. With the SOX up 2.5% (and thus far absorbing the supply), it's the branch on the side of today's cliff.

  • Survivor: the new reality show!

  • I opined on the Buzz that I thought crude would follow the script written by the base metals. That's trading instinct and doesn't shift the long-term secular thesis. Corrections can be sharp, however, and they must be respected.

  • Is the Yanks-Sox the best rivalry in sports? What say ye faithful?

  • Rats!

  • The cyclicals are gettin' thumped (see Deere (DE:NYSE). CYC 680-685 is where the 50- and 200-day averages live.

  • He's just a little bearish.

  • Keep an eye on Aunt Fannie (FNM:NYSE) as it retests breakdown resistance at $69-$70ish.

  • I was at my office until 11:30 last night and back in at 6:00 this morning. Repeat after me: world's...biggest...hypocrite.

  • Is it a coincidence that we've seen so many downgrades of the material names (Inco N:NYSE), Freeport (FCX:NYSE)) the morning after we've seen double digit hits in the base metals? Anyone wanna bet on last night's Yankee game?

  • Fund managers may face similar problems.

  • "The action so far, relative to our AM note, seems to be on track for the ABC bounce to Fibonacci resistance for all three indices. The opening gap up today was in the heart of the Fibonacci resistance areas we cited but doesn't look to be the corrective bounce peak for a number of subtle technical reasons. As a result, the technical indicators are still suggesting one more attempt at today's peaks or slightly above to provide a pivot point and resumption of the bearish trend." - Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • Bowling averages are way up, mini-golf scores are way down.

  • See the downside reversal in the trannies.

  • If you would like to offer a gratis month of Minyanville to your network, please let us know. We rely on our fellow Minyans to help spread the word of the critter mission!

  • S&P 1120 and NDX 1440---dual 200-day moving averages--are the levels to watch as we edge into the afternoon.

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position in fnm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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