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Random Thoughts

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Be yourself, Minyans. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.

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  • I'm gonna bounce back and when I do I'm gonna buy you a diamond so big it's gonna make you puke!!!

    Hold it together, Navin, this is no time to be a Jerk. In fact, this is exactly the time that we need to be most lucid. While I'm having trouble finding time to write today due to the incessant amount of instant messages, I'm getting--frustrated, capitulatory, hands-in-the-air instant messages--that says something. There is a TON of emotion out there right now. A TON.

    Settle down Francis.

    While there are four primary metrics, there are two primary drivers of the stock market. Fear and greed. We spoke of this into quarter-end, along with the potential that it manifests into year-end. It's entirely too early to make that call--let's worry about today--but what I'm seeing around the Street is a fear of missing.

    Yes, this can last. I remember a similar fear into the last few months of '99, which lasted into 2000. If you were early, you were toasted like burnt bagel. That's why discipline is oh-so-important and following our tells is helpful on a day-to-day basis.

    A smart guy once told me never to short a chart you can't ski. From my perch, we're still in the chair-lift.

  • Somebody call Duke & Duke! Orange Juice Futures are up 15% following the USDA crop report.

  • While my instant message angst-o-meter has edged to 8,000 RPM, our tea leaves are hanging with Hoofy. Breadth is 3:1, technical levels are underfoot, the financials (ex-Citi) are firm and the dollar remains under the five year trendline.

  • One of my closer contacts--a folliclely challenged fellow who has nailed this rally--said that he too is seeing an "I don't have a choice, I just gotta own 'em" mentality take hold. But he disagrees with my '99 analogy--he truly thinks that this is 1995-ish.

  • Personally, I would LOVE that--an old fashioned economic boom would work wonders for the Critter Nation. But I honestly don't see it--I think there's a massive difference in the DNA of the market, the economy and the consumer.

  • Chatter has it that Television's JeffMacke will be hosting CNBC's Squawk Box tomorrow morning. Break a leg, Wolf.

  • I've spoken about my "V-shaped" risk profile--long calls in the energy and metal space (Weatherford, Golden Star (common) among 'em ) and puts in the financials (JP Morgan, among 'em). I'm still there, with my net delta starting to lean long as a function of price. I've been "trading around" the positions and will continue to do so. It's entirely alright to dance while the music is playing---that's what traders do. Just make sure you have a seat when the music stops. That's what disciplined people do.

  • Have you seeing the Grateful Dead Stock Index?

  • Wanna get away? No, don't get on Southwest Airlines, just watch the trailer at the bottom of this page.

  • "1-800-get me in! Yep, it's heating up. I can feel it. Capitulation. When that line rings, I answer. What do I say to the other party? SOLD TO YOU. Not calling for a top (that is dangerous), but risk increases with every move up. And I think 1365 will be a brick wall. So there!" Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • I saw a few folks pile on and put the fork in the online space and while this is a dynamic we've been following for a while (early--us?!?), I think some of them will adapt and evolve. Be wary when a short looks too easy.

  • Be yourself, Minyans. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.


R.P.

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position in energy, metals, financials, wft, gss, jpm
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