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Random Thoughts


Be yourself, Minyans. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.

  • I'm gonna bounce back and when I do I'm gonna buy you a diamond so big it's gonna make you puke!!!

    Hold it together, Navin, this is no time to be a Jerk. In fact, this is exactly the time that we need to be most lucid. While I'm having trouble finding time to write today due to the incessant amount of instant messages, I'm getting--frustrated, capitulatory, hands-in-the-air instant messages--that says something. There is a TON of emotion out there right now. A TON.

    Settle down Francis.

    While there are four primary metrics, there are two primary drivers of the stock market. Fear and greed. We spoke of this into quarter-end, along with the potential that it manifests into year-end. It's entirely too early to make that call--let's worry about today--but what I'm seeing around the Street is a fear of missing.

    Yes, this can last. I remember a similar fear into the last few months of '99, which lasted into 2000. If you were early, you were toasted like burnt bagel. That's why discipline is oh-so-important and following our tells is helpful on a day-to-day basis.

    A smart guy once told me never to short a chart you can't ski. From my perch, we're still in the chair-lift.

  • Somebody call Duke & Duke! Orange Juice Futures are up 15% following the USDA crop report.

  • While my instant message angst-o-meter has edged to 8,000 RPM, our tea leaves are hanging with Hoofy. Breadth is 3:1, technical levels are underfoot, the financials (ex-Citi) are firm and the dollar remains under the five year trendline.

  • One of my closer contacts--a folliclely challenged fellow who has nailed this rally--said that he too is seeing an "I don't have a choice, I just gotta own 'em" mentality take hold. But he disagrees with my '99 analogy--he truly thinks that this is 1995-ish.

  • Personally, I would LOVE that--an old fashioned economic boom would work wonders for the Critter Nation. But I honestly don't see it--I think there's a massive difference in the DNA of the market, the economy and the consumer.

  • Chatter has it that Television's JeffMacke will be hosting CNBC's Squawk Box tomorrow morning. Break a leg, Wolf.

  • I've spoken about my "V-shaped" risk profile--long calls in the energy and metal space (Weatherford, Golden Star (common) among 'em ) and puts in the financials (JP Morgan, among 'em). I'm still there, with my net delta starting to lean long as a function of price. I've been "trading around" the positions and will continue to do so. It's entirely alright to dance while the music is playing---that's what traders do. Just make sure you have a seat when the music stops. That's what disciplined people do.

  • Have you seeing the Grateful Dead Stock Index?

  • Wanna get away? No, don't get on Southwest Airlines, just watch the trailer at the bottom of this page.

  • "1-800-get me in! Yep, it's heating up. I can feel it. Capitulation. When that line rings, I answer. What do I say to the other party? SOLD TO YOU. Not calling for a top (that is dangerous), but risk increases with every move up. And I think 1365 will be a brick wall. So there!" Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • I saw a few folks pile on and put the fork in the online space and while this is a dynamic we've been following for a while (early--us?!?), I think some of them will adapt and evolve. Be wary when a short looks too easy.

  • Be yourself, Minyans. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.


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position in energy, metals, financials, wft, gss, jpm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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