Red Light, Green Light 1-2-3
Keep it in perspective Minyans.
Dear Mr. Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all feel happy
Do anything to take (keep) us out of this gloom
Sing a song, play guitar, make us happy
We've had a little bit of everything today--a heavy dump in the morning, some nice snappage in the afternoon and a water main break in between (just to keep us honest). As it stands, S&P 1120 (the 200-day) held and that, coupled with a 3% downside reversal in crude, has sowed the seeds of bulls and steeds. Now, with whips and change all the rage, it's time to sharpen our #2's and ready ourselves for the Mother Chip. And you wanted to be a trader!
There is a LOT going on and we should take a deep breath and think this through. Earnings and oil are center stage and they're two variables that will jockey for investor attention. Meanwhile, those pesky levels are playing havoc with the pure technicians as they gave buy signals (when they popped above our dual 200-days), sell signals (when they gave way) and are now trying to stake their claim anew. And lest we forget, we've got a ticking ticket on November 2nd that colors both interpretation and psychology.
I'm a bit torn as I continue to sense that crude will nose-dive into the election (more feel than fact) but also believe that there could be terror jitters before the polls. Both of these are gut instincts and, as we know, the hairs on the back of our necks fall to the bottom of the trading totem pole. In the interim, we're about to get shell-shocked with fundamental inputs that may be less than thrilling but must be juxtaposed against lower expectations.
Either way, the collective psyche "wants" to buy stocks as evidenced by the begrudging supply and reaching demand. I don't know what shifts that (other than more supply) and I'm trying to assimilate the positive inputs (corporates) with the negative signals (DeMark). Water pistol to head is still lower but as I said this morning, it'll likely be full of fits and starts and all kinds of noise. It's been that kind of year, my friends, and it just continues to continue.
Before I go, I wanna share an email I got today as it'll frame our angst with the proper perspective. "Toddo- My sister is the most giving, warm, kind person you would ever meet in the world. What was supposed to be an exciting sonogram has turned into a fetus with missing 2 heart ventricles, the need for open heart surgery upon birth, and potential mental retardation. Why does it always take bad things to make us realize how good we have it? Wishing for prayers to ease the heartbreaking body blow. Somehow earnings, elections, and Elmer just don't seem to matter at the moment."
Amen, brother, and I think I speak for they entire Minyanhood when I say that our prayers are with you and your family.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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