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Random Thoughts

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Anybody got a life raft?

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  • Let's get ready to rumble!

  • Minyan Marc and the Funky Hunch!

  • A GRAVE danger? Is there any other kind?

  • Heading into today, my derivative contacts are telling me that the overnight price action caught a lot of professionals by surprise and that the short base is rather low. Not a shocker, I suppose, as most folks have been lining up for the "inevitable" upside break out. We've seen this movie before (NDX 1500) but please remember that the script is still being written (with each incremental data point).

  • There is a simultaneous bull and bear market in motion at all times. The final tally each day is the residual residue from that friction.

  • "We're just physically not physical enough." -- Denny Crum, Louisville basketball coach

  • What ever happened to good ol' fashioned soap?

  • Treasury Secretary Snow will be speaking in Ohio at high noon.

  • "In Crested Butte, we discussed the intraday behavior of SP futures after large gaps. If the SP futures open lower by -.75% today (they're flirting with that level right now), here's a recap from CB: General: (1) There is a 77% chance of a lower close; (2) the SP "fills the gap" just 43% of the time; and (3) there is a 75% probability of at least a .35% intraday retracement to the upside. Close Relative to the Open: The action AFTER the first hour can be an indicator of the day's close: (1) when the high of the day is made inside the first 1 1/2 hours, there is a 70% probability of closing below the open whereas (2) if a new low is made after the first hour, the odds of a lower close increase to 97% and the probability of closing below the open is more than 75%" --Jason Roney

  • A synopsis of the conversations in my office. "I'm hungry." "Wanna eat something?" "Nope."

  • Some oil and stock vibes from our friends at CBS MarketWatch.

  • Gold continues to scold the Johnnie come latelies as the smeltin' is meltin'. The yellow metal is off $8 and sitting on the previous acne zone (August high) at $413ish. White lightenin', for its part, is off 3.5% and back at $7 (acne of its own).

  • I just passed Billy Meehan on an absolute weight basis. The important thing to note is that I started this bet at 225 lbs and he started at 215 lbs.

  • My sense continues to be lower still but it likely won't be smooth sailing in either direction. Earnings will provide fits and starts in both directions and slippy oil (if and when) will likely help the tape. Still, with the election looming and jitters in vogue, I think Hoofy has a tough row to hoe.

  • Remember the Alamo!

  • I opined as oil ticked towards $50 that we could see rude crude turn tail into the election (SPR anyone?). That's been a silly and nonsensical observation--so far--but it didn't stop me from scooping 50:1 odds this morning from a certain energy maven we know.

  • Come on Mitch, don't black ball me!

  • "Higher energy AND lower rates?! The rapid rise in the price of all energy related commodities (crude, nat gas, unleaded) has many scratchin' their heads as to how the 10-year note yield can remain near historic lows. The answer lies in the stubbornly low level of the CPI ex-food and energy. the spirited debate on why we exclude two of the most essential ingredients to our everyday life has been with us for years. In my view, there is a very good explanation--it is what is the most closely correlated to Fed Funds and the 10-year note yields. The argument of whether it is right or wrong to exclude food and energy is not as important as the fact that it historically works the best." Snoop Tony Dwyer

  • Pie? Want some pie? How 'bout some pie? Come on, try the pie...

  • Tell Check! Breadth? Fugly...almost two red for each ahead. Sector tells? Southbound...with the very notable exception of the financials. Rotation or denial? Crude? Front month futes are down on the day (felt panicky this morning) Nets? Down en masse...except for Google (GOOG:NASD) which just giggled green. Semis? Nosty...although Intel (INTC:NASD) should find some support at $20.

  • Yes, the address is 1255 Westward Ho Avenue...

  • I can't shake this awful feeling about the Red SOX.

  • When it rains, it pours....literally! A water main has busted above the computer room and has dumped water on all the computer equipment. No, I'm not making this up...how could I? I've still got my trusty Bloomberg (for now) and email....but man, that's funky!

    R.P.
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